Pressure, Reference Points, and Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Bench Press Competitions

This study explores the impact of pressure and reference points on risk-taking behavior and success outcomes in competitive settings. Using a unique panel dataset from official bench press competitions, we decompose the effects of pressure from rivals on lifters' risk-taking decisions and realized outcomes. Our findings reveal that pressure from lower- and higher-ranked rivals drives more aggressive weight attempts, particularly in earlier stages, with the likelihood of success increasing as pressure intensifies. In third and final attempts, pressure from higher-ranked competitors leads to more conservative choices. Counterfactual analysis shows that in the absence of pressure, lifters adopt more conservative strategies in second attempts and take greater risks in third attempts, though with reduced success probabilities. These results underscore the importance of strategic focus on personal goals and the potential benefits of disregarding external pressures in the later stages of competition.