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The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap

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  • Adrian Odenweller
  • Falko Ueckerdt

Abstract

Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors, but faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 137 projects over three years, we identify a wide 2022 implementation gap with only 2% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule. In contrast, the 2030 ambition gap towards 1.5{\deg}C scenarios is gradually closing as the announced project pipeline has nearly tripled to 441 GW within three years. However, we estimate that, without carbon pricing, realising all these projects would require global subsidies of \$1.6 trillion (\$1.2 - 2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies. Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity. Policy support needs to secure hydrogen investments, but should focus on applications where hydrogen is indispensable.

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  • Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt, 2024. "The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap," Papers 2406.07210, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.07210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.
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