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The carbon dioxide removal gap

Author

Listed:
  • William F. Lamb

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    University of Leeds)

  • Thomas Gasser

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta

    (European Commission)

  • Giacomo Grassi

    (European Commission)

  • Matthew J. Gidden

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Carter M. Powis

    (University of Oxford)

  • Oliver Geden

    (German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP))

  • Gregory Nemet

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Yoga Pratama

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Stephen M. Smith

    (University of Oxford)

  • Jan Steinhauser

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Naomi E. Vaughan

    (University of East Anglia
    University of East Anglia)

  • Harry B. Smith

    (University of East Anglia
    University of East Anglia)

  • Jan C. Minx

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    University of Leeds)

Abstract

Rapid emissions reductions, including reductions in deforestation-based land emissions, are the dominant source of global climate mitigation potential in the coming decades. However, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will also have an important role to play. Despite this, it remains unclear whether current national proposals for CDR align with temperature targets. Here we show the ‘CDR gap’, that is, CDR efforts proposed by countries fall short of those in integrated assessment model scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C. However, the most ambitious proposals for CDR are close to levels in a low-energy demand scenario with the most-limited CDR scaling and aggressive near-term emissions reductions. Further, we observe that many countries propose to expand land-based removals, but none yet commit to substantively scaling novel methods such as bioenergy carbon capture and storage, biochar or direct air carbon capture and storage.

Suggested Citation

  • William F. Lamb & Thomas Gasser & Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta & Giacomo Grassi & Matthew J. Gidden & Carter M. Powis & Oliver Geden & Gregory Nemet & Yoga Pratama & Keywan Riahi & Stephen M. Smith & Jan Stei, 2024. "The carbon dioxide removal gap," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 644-651, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-024-01984-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01984-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt, 2024. "The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap," Papers 2406.07210, arXiv.org.
    2. Kate Dooley & Kirstine Lund Christiansen & Jens Friis Lund & Wim Carton & Alister Self, 2024. "Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Rickels, Wilfried & Fridahl, Mathias & Rothenstein, Roland & Schenuit, Felix, 2024. "Build carbon removal reserve to secure future of EU emissions trading," Kiel Policy Brief 175, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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