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Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation

Author

Listed:
  • Lynnette Dray

    (University College London)

  • Andreas W. Schäfer

    (University College London)

  • Carla Grobler

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Christoph Falter

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Florian Allroggen

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Marc E. J. Stettler

    (Imperial College London)

  • Steven R. H. Barrett

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways—synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen—could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO2 emissions by 89–94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2–3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5–2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO2-equivalent emissions by only 46–69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO2 impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynnette Dray & Andreas W. Schäfer & Carla Grobler & Christoph Falter & Florian Allroggen & Marc E. J. Stettler & Steven R. H. Barrett, 2022. "Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(10), pages 956-962, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01485-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lynnette Dray & Khan Doyme, 2019. "Carbon leakage in aviation policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 1284-1296, November.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    3. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    4. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 895-900, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt, 2024. "The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap," Papers 2406.07210, arXiv.org.
    3. Gössling, Stefan & Humpe, Andreas, 2023. "Net-zero aviation: Time for a new business model?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Davide Tonelli & Lorenzo Rosa & Paolo Gabrielli & Ken Caldeira & Alessandro Parente & Francesco Contino, 2023. "Global land and water limits to electrolytic hydrogen production using wind and solar resources," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Panagiotis Fragkos, 2022. "Decarbonizing the International Shipping and Aviation Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    6. Simone Speizer & Jay Fuhrman & Laura Aldrete Lopez & Mel George & Page Kyle & Seth Monteith & Haewon McJeon, 2024. "Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Candelaria Bergero & Greer Gosnell & Dolf Gielen & Seungwoo Kang & Morgan Bazilian & Steven J. Davis, 2023. "Pathways to net-zero emissions from aviation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 404-414, April.
    8. Vishal Ram & Surender Reddy Salkuti, 2023. "An Overview of Major Synthetic Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-35, March.
    9. Geissler, Caleb H. & Ryu, Joonjae & Maravelias, Christos T., 2024. "The future of biofuels in the United States transportation sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    10. Wang, Jiqiang & Wang, Ya & Zhang, Shaohui & Fan, Chun & Zhou, Nanqing & Liu, Jinhui & Li, Xin & Liu, Yun & Hou, Xiujun & Yi, Bowen, 2024. "Accounting of aviation carbon emission in developing countries based on flight-level ADS-B data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).

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