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Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity

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  • Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  • Robert G. Chambers
  • Yurou He
  • David B. Lobell

Abstract

Increasing agricultural productivity is a gradual process with significant time lags between research and development (R&D) investment and the resulting gains. We estimate the response of US agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to both R&D investment and weather, and quantify the public R&D spending required to offset the emerging impacts of climate change. We find that offsetting the climate-induced productivity slowdown by 2050 alone requires a sustained public R&D spending growth of 5.2-7.8% per year over 2021-2050. This amounts to an additional $208-$434B investment over this period. These are substantial requirements comparable to the public R&D spending growth that followed the two World Wars.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Robert G. Chambers & Yurou He & David B. Lobell, 2024. "Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity," Papers 2405.08159, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.08159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oliver T. Coomes & Bradford L. Barham & Graham K. MacDonald & Navin Ramankutty & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2019. "Leveraging total factor productivity growth for sustainable and resilient farming," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 22-28, January.
    2. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang Nian, 2024. "The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Total Factor Productivity in the Solid Waste Treatment Industry: The Mediating Effect of R&D Inputs," GATR Journals jfbr225, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.

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