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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020

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  • Wencun Zhou

    (Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Zhengjia Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Sisi Wang

    (National Remote Sensing Center of China, Beijing 100036, China)

Abstract

The cropland area is closely related to food production. Previously, more focuses were paid on impacts of extreme events on food production, but less on cropland dynamics. This study used the piecewise linear regression, the correlation analysis, and the ridge regression to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of cropland and its drivers in three time periods (1992–2020, 1992–2010, and 2010–2020) at the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China (FPEN). Specifically, 13 driving factors were considered from the perspectives of extreme events, environmental conditions, socioeconomic development, urban sprawl, and ecological construction. Results showed that the cropland area increased significantly at a rate of 333.5 km 2 /a during 1992–2020 and was spatially clustered in the eastern FPEN. The impact extent and size of each driving factor on the cropland trend presented large spatiotemporal differences, but ecological construction had, overall, the greatest impact on cropland area changes, followed by urban sprawl. In comparison, extreme low temperature had the smallest. Since the 2010s, areas with urban sprawl being the dominant factor in cropland dynamics have increased by 41.9%, but it is still less than the ecological construction impact. Furthermore, this study found that extreme event effects on the cropland area trend evidently increased. Particularly, extreme high temperature displayed the highest increase (~99.4%). Cropland area changes dominated by extreme temperature events in 2010–2020 increased by nearly six times compared to those in 1992–2010. These results suggest that policy and planning makers should caution increasing impacts of regional extreme weather events on cropland area changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wencun Zhou & Zhengjia Liu & Sisi Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-28, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:18:p:13338-:d:1233780
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