IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2312.00160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Baumol's Climate Disease

Author

Listed:
  • Fangzhi Wang
  • Hua Liao
  • Richard S. J. Tol

Abstract

We investigate optimal carbon abatement in a dynamic general equilibrium climate-economy model with endogenous structural change. By differentiating the production of investment from consumption, we show that social cost of carbon can be conceived as a reduction in physical capital. In addition, we distinguish two final sectors in terms of productivity growth and climate vulnerability. We theoretically show that heterogeneous climate vulnerability results in a climate-induced version of Baumol's cost disease. Further, if climate-vulnerable sectors have high (low) productivity growth, climate impact can either ameliorate (aggravate) the Baumol's cost disease, call for less (more) stringent climate policy. We conclude that carbon abatement should not only factor in unpriced climate capital, but also be tailored to Baumol's cost and climate diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.00160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.00160
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Fankhauser, Samuel & S.J. Tol, Richard, 2005. "On climate change and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173.
    4. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    5. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo & Poschke, Markus, 2017. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    6. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Lawrence Goulder & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Geoffrey Heal & Simon Levin & Karl-Göran Mäler & Stephen Schneider & David Starrett & Brian Walker, 2004. "Are We Consuming Too Much?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 147-172, Summer.
    7. Miguel León-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2020. "The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 109-146, October.
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2009. "Can Traditional Theories of Structural Change Fit The Data?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 469-477, 04-05.
    9. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Dasgupta, Partha & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Oleson, Kirsten, 2012. "Sustainability and the measurement of wealth," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 317-353, June.
    10. Timo Boppart, 2014. "Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model With Relative Price Effects and Non‐Gorman Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2167-2196, November.
    11. Casey, Gregory & Fried, Stephie & Gibson, Matthew, 2024. "Understanding climate damages: Consumption versus investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Manuel García‐Santana & Josep Pijoan‐Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2021. "Investment Demand and Structural Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2751-2785, November.
    13. Simon Alder & Timo Boppart & Andreas Müller, 2022. "A Theory of Structural Change That Can Fit the Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 160-206, April.
    14. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    16. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    17. Acemoglu, Daron & Rafey, Will, 2023. "Mirage on the horizon: Geoengineering and carbon taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    18. Yongyang Cai & William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Climate Change Impact on Economic Growth: Regional Climate Policy under Cooperation and Noncooperation," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 569-605.
    19. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper 19-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    20. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    21. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    22. Tamma Carleton & Amir Jina & Michael Delgado & Michael Greenstone & Trevor Houser & Solomon Hsiang & Andrew Hultgren & Robert E Kopp & Kelly E McCusker & Ishan Nath & James Rising & Ashwin Rode & Hee , 2022. "Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits [Distributive Politics and Economic Growth]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(4), pages 2037-2105.
    23. Nordhaus William D, 2008. "Baumol's Diseases: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-39, February.
    24. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    25. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Meunier, Guy & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2018. "When starting with the most expensive option makes sense: Optimal timing, cost and sectoral allocation of abatement investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 210-233.
    26. Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-765, September.
    27. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    28. Martin L. Weitzman, 2016. "Some Theoretical Connections Among Wealth, Income, Sustainability, and Accounting," NBER Working Papers 22060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Tol, Richard S. J., 1994. "The damage costs of climate change: a note on tangibles and intangibles, applied to DICE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 436-438, May.
    30. Maria Waldinger, 2022. "The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(9), pages 2275-2314.
    31. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    32. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    33. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    34. Barrage, Lint, 2018. "Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-49.
    35. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    36. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    37. Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "What Is the "Damages Function" for Global Warming — And What Difference Might It Make?," Scholarly Articles 33373343, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    38. Berthold Herrendorf & Christopher Herrington & Ákos Valentinyi, 2015. "Sectoral Technology and Structural Transformation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 104-133, October.
    39. Thomas Sterner & U. Martin Persson, 2008. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-76, Winter.
    40. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    41. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2015. "Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus' Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 574-620, March.
    42. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    43. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    44. Martin L. Weitzman, 2010. "What Is The "Damages Function" For Global Warming — And What Difference Might It Make?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 57-69.
    45. Alessio Moro, 2015. "Structural Change, Growth, and Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 259-294, July.
    46. Kenneth Gillingham & James H. Stock, 2018. "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 53-72, Fall.
    47. Lint Barrage, 2020. "Optimal Dynamic Carbon Taxes in a Climate–Economy Model with Distortionary Fiscal Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 1-39.
    48. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & Ákos Valentinyi, 2021. "Structural Change in Investment and Consumption—A Unified Analysis [Capital Deepening and Non-balanced Economic Growth]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1311-1346.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Sen, 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Working Papers 048, The Productivity Institute.
    2. Marcolino, Marcos, 2022. "Accounting for structural transformation in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Kornek, Ulrike & Klenert, David & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2021. "The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Felice, Giulia, 2022. "Trade and structural change: An empirical investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-79.
    6. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    7. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Martí Mestieri & Daniel G. O'Connor, 2020. "The Stable Transformation Path," NBER Working Papers 27731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    10. Fabian Eckert & Michael Peters, 2018. "Spatial Structural Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 98, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    12. Chen, Chaoran, 2020. "Capital-skill complementarity, sectoral labor productivity, and structural transformation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    13. Simon Alder & Timo Boppart & Andreas Müller, 2022. "A Theory of Structural Change That Can Fit the Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 160-206, April.
    14. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. David R Baqaee & Ariel Burstein, 2023. "Welfare and Output With Income Effects and Taste Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 769-834.
    16. van Neuss, Leif, 2018. "Globalization and deindustrialization in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 49-63.
    17. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2021. "Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2018. "Labor mobility, structural change and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 292-310.
    19. Aristizabal-Ramirez, Maria & Leahy, John & Tesar, Linda L., 2023. "A north-south model of structural change and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 77-102.
    20. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.00160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.