IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2303.09176.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Options Technique as a Tool of Strategic Risk Management

Author

Listed:
  • Volodymyr Savchuk

Abstract

The real options approach is now considered an effective alternative to the corporate DCF model for a feasibility study. The current paper offers a practical methodology employing binomial trees and real options techniques for evaluating investment projects. A general computation procedure is suggested for the decision tree with two active stages of real options, which correspond to additional investments. The suggested technique can be used for most real options, which are practically essential regarding enterprise strategy. The special case named Binomial-Random-Cash-Flow Real Options Model with random outcomes is developed as the next step of real options modelling. Project Value at Risk is introduced and used as a criterion of investment project feasibility under the assumption regarding random outcomes. In particular, the Gaussian probability distribution is used for modelling option outcomes uncertainty. The choice of the Gaussian distribution is caused by the desire to obtain estimates in the final analytical form. Choosing another distribution for random outcomes leads to using Monte Carlo simulation, for which a general framework is developed by demonstrating some instances. The author could avoid the computational complexity that makes these solutions feasible for business practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Volodymyr Savchuk, 2023. "Real Options Technique as a Tool of Strategic Risk Management," Papers 2303.09176, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.09176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.09176
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henry Mintzberg, 2001. "Managing Exceptionally," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(6), pages 759-771, December.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    4. Edward H. Bowman & Gary T. Moskowitz, 2001. "Real Options Analysis and Strategic Decision Making," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(6), pages 772-777, December.
    5. John Graham & Campbell Harvey, 2002. "HOW DO CFOs MAKE CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(1), pages 8-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Han Smit & Enrico Pennings & Sjoerd Bekkum, 2017. "Real options and institutions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(5), pages 620-644, July.
    3. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    4. Li, Yong & James, Barclay & Madhavan, Ravi & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2006. "Real Options: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead," Working Papers 06-0114, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    5. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
    6. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Strategie podniku a finanční teorie [Corporate strategy and financial theory]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 147-162.
    7. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    8. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    10. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    11. Estrada, Isabel & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Martín-Cruz, Natalia, 2010. "Technological joint venture formation under the real options approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1185-1197, November.
    12. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Product market competition, investment and employment-abundant versus job-poor growth: A real options perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 218-238, March.
    13. LOFGREN Asa & MILLOCK Katrin & NAUGES Céline, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," LERNA Working Papers 07.06.227, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    14. Song, Dandan & Wang, Huamao & Yang, Zhaojun, 2014. "Learning, pricing, timing and hedging of the option to invest for perpetual cash flows with idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    15. Wong, Kit Pong, 2008. "Does market demand volatility facilitate collusion?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 696-703, July.
    16. John P. Small & Henry Ergas, 1999. "The Rental Cost of Sunk and Regulated Capital," Econometrics Working Papers 9908, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    17. Laetitia Lepetit & Clovis Rugemintwari & Frank Strobel, 2015. "Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1179-1204, August.
    18. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    19. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    20. Gürtler, Marc & Sieg, Gernot, 2006. "Crunch time: The optimal policy to avoid the "Announcement Effect" when terminating a subsidy," Working Papers FW24V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.09176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.