IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v147y2023ics0165188923000118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Arve, Malin
  • Zwart, Gijsbert

Abstract

We study a buyer’s optimal investment strategy for new technologies when costs evolve stochastically and are private information to the suppliers. In a real option setting, we show how the asymmetric information on the stochastic variables optimally distorts technology choice and investment timing. We find that with multiple technologies, asymmetric information may delay or speed up investment, compared to the first-best real option benchmark. We also suggest a payment structure that implements the buyer’s optimal investment timing as a Vickrey-type auction.

Suggested Citation

  • Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:147:y:2023:i:c:s0165188923000118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104605
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188923000118
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104605?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1953rrr is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1953rr is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
    4. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    5. Mark Bagnoli & Ted Bergstrom, 2006. "Log-concave probability and its applications," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Charalambos D. Aliprantis & Rosa L. Matzkin & Daniel L. McFadden & James C. Moore & Nicholas C. Yann (ed.), Rationality and Equilibrium, pages 217-241, Springer.
    6. Peter Broer & Gijsbert Zwart, 2013. "Optimal regulation of lumpy investments," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 177-196, October.
    7. Tine Compernolle & Kuno J. M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort & Maria Lavrutich & Cláudia Nunes & Jacco J. J. Thijssen, 2021. "Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, November.
    8. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso V‰lim‰ki, 2010. "The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 771-789, March.
    9. Besanko, David, 1985. "Multi-period contracts between principal and agent with adverse selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 33-37.
    10. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2005. "Investment timing, agency, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 493-533, March.
    11. Geltner, David & Riddiough, Timothy & Stojanovic, Srdjan, 1996. "Insights on the Effect of Land Use Choice: The Perpetual Option on the Best of Two Underlying Assets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-50, January.
    12. Malin Arve, 2016. "Long-Term Contracts, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 18(5), pages 764-785, October.
    13. Myerson, Roger B, 1979. "Incentive Compatibility and the Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 61-73, January.
    14. Shibata, Takashi, 2009. "Investment timing, asymmetric information, and audit structure: A real options framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 903-921, April.
    15. Bergemann, Dirk & Strack, Philipp, 2015. "Dynamic revenue maximization: A continuous time approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 819-853.
    16. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    17. Eső, Péter & Szentes, Balázs, 2017. "Dynamic contracting: an irrelevance theorem," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69403, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Matthieu Bouvard, 2014. "Real Option Financing Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 180-210, January.
    19. Eső, Péter & Szentes, Balázs, 2017. "Dynamic contracting: an irrelevance theorem," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), January.
    20. Bert Willems & Gijsbert Zwart, 2018. "Optimal regulation of network expansion," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(1), pages 23-42, March.
    21. Yrjö Koskinen & Joril Maeland, 2016. "Innovation, Competition, and Investment Timing," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 166-199.
    22. Jean-Charles Rochet & Lars A. Stole, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing with Random Participation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 277-311.
    23. Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 925-972, December.
    24. Ingo Vogelsang, 2012. "Incentive Regulation, Investments and Technological Change," Chapters, in: Gerald R. Faulhaber & Gary Madden & Jeffrey Petchey (ed.), Regulation and the Performance of Communication and Information Networks, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2011. "Renewing Assets with Uncertain Revenues and Operating Costs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 785-813, June.
    26. Yuliy Sannikov, 2008. "A Continuous-Time Version of the Principal-Agent Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 957-984.
    27. Myerson, Roger B, 1986. "Multistage Games with Communication," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 323-358, March.
    28. Zwart, Gijsbert, 2021. "Optimal regulation of energy network expansion when costs are stochastic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    29. Pascal Courty & Li Hao, 2000. "Sequential Screening," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(4), pages 697-717.
    30. Mark Broadie & Jérôme Detemple, 1997. "The Valuation of American Options on Multiple Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 241-286, July.
    31. Sham M. Kakade & Ilan Lobel & Hamid Nazerzadeh, 2013. "Optimal Dynamic Mechanism Design and the Virtual-Pivot Mechanism," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 837-854, August.
    32. Baron, David P. & Besanko, David, 1984. "Regulation and information in a continuing relationship," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 267-302.
    33. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    34. PETER M. DeMARZO & YULIY SANNIKOV, 2006. "Optimal Security Design and Dynamic Capital Structure in a Continuous‐Time Agency Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2681-2724, December.
    35. Steven R. Grenadier & Andrey Malenko, 2011. "Real Options Signaling Games with Applications to Corporate Finance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3993-4036.
    36. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    37. Partha Dasgupta & Peter Hammond & Eric Maskin, 1979. "The Implementation of Social Choice Rules: Some General Results on Incentive Compatibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 46(2), pages 185-216.
    38. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2021. "Do exit options increase the value for money of public–private partnerships?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 721-742, November.
    39. Roger B. Myerson, 1981. "Optimal Auction Design," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 58-73, February.
    40. Alessandro Pavan & Ilya Segal & Juuso Toikka, 2014. "Dynamic Mechanism Design: A Myersonian Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 601-653, March.
    41. Raphael Boleslavsky & Maher Said, 2013. "Progressive Screening: Long-Term Contracting with a Privately Known Stochastic Process," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 1-34.
    42. Cremer, Jacques & McLean, Richard P, 1988. "Full Extraction of the Surplus in Bayesian and Dominant Strategy Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1247-1257, November.
    43. Steven R. Grenadier & Andrey Malenko & Nadya Malenko, 2016. "Timing Decisions in Organizations: Communication and Authority in a Dynamic Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2552-2581, September.
    44. Kruse, Thomas & Strack, Philipp, 2015. "Optimal stopping with private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 702-727.
    45. Di Corato, Luca & Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2018. "Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts with early-exit options: The case of conservation contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 368-380.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2023. "Taxation of Public Franchises with Persistent Demand Shocks," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0306, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Luca Di Corato & Michele Moretto, 2024. "Supply contracting under dynamic asymmetric cost information," Working Papers 2024.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Rosella Levaggi & Michele Moretto & Paolo Pertile, 2023. "Dynamic, incentive-compatible contracting for health services," Working Papers 2023.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Sarfraz Hussain & Rosalan Ali & Walid Emam & Yusra Tashkandy & Pradeep Mishra & Mochammad Fahlevi & Adelajda Matuka, 2023. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Value: Impact of Investment Sentiments in Energy and Petroleum," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-28, June.
    5. Panova, Elena & Garrett, Daniel F., 2023. "Regulating investments when both costs and need are private," TSE Working Papers 23-1429, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bergemann, Dirk & Pavan, Alessandro, 2015. "Introduction to Symposium on Dynamic Contracts and Mechanism Design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 679-701.
    2. Panova, Elena & Garrett, Daniel F., 2023. "Regulating investments when both costs and need are private," TSE Working Papers 23-1429, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Dirk Bergemann & Alessandro Pavan, 2015. "Introduction to JET Symposium Issue on "Dynamic Contracts and Mechanism Design"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2016, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Zwart, Gijsbert, 2021. "Optimal regulation of energy network expansion when costs are stochastic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Välimäki, 2019. "Dynamic Mechanism Design: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 235-274, June.
    6. Bergemann, Dirk & Strack, Philipp, 2015. "Dynamic revenue maximization: A continuous time approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 819-853.
    7. Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2020. "Investments under vertical relations and agency conflicts: A real options approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 273-287.
    8. Lu, Jingfeng & Wang, Zijia, 2021. "Optimal selling mechanisms with buyer price search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Maarten van Oosterhout & Gijsbert Zwart, 2023. "Distortions in Investment Timing and Quantity in Real Options with Asymmetric Information," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(4), pages 347-365, December.
    10. Chifeng Dai, 2021. "Optimal sequential contract with a risk‐averse supplier," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 92-125, February.
    11. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2023. "Taxation of Public Franchises with Persistent Demand Shocks," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0306, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    12. Bergemann, Dirk & Strack, Philipp, 2022. "Progressive participation," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
    13. Emil Temnyalov, 2019. "Points mechanisms and rewards programs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 436-457, June.
    14. Chawla, Shuchi & Devanur, Nikhil R. & Karlin, Anna R. & Sivan, Balasubramanian, 2022. "Simple pricing schemes for consumers with evolving values," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 344-360.
    15. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1953rrr is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tao Zhang & Quanyan Zhu, 2022. "On Incentive Compatibility in Dynamic Mechanism Design With Exit Option in a Markovian Environment," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 701-745, June.
    17. Bergemann, Dirk & V�lim�ki, Juuso, 2017. "Dynamic Mechanism Design: An Introduction," CEPR Discussion Papers 12240, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Tao Zhang & Quanyan Zhu, 2019. "On Incentive Compatibility in Dynamic Mechanism Design With Exit Option in a Markovian Environment," Papers 1909.13720, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    19. Jean Tirole, 2016. "From Bottom of the Barrel to Cream of the Crop: Sequential Screening With Positive Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1291-1343, July.
    20. Papadimitriou, Christos & Pierrakos, George & Psomas, Alexandros & Rubinstein, Aviad, 2022. "On the complexity of dynamic mechanism design," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 399-427.
    21. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real option; Adverse selection; Dynamic contracting; Irreversible investment; Continuous time; Optimal stopping; Procurement; Principal-agent model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:147:y:2023:i:c:s0165188923000118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.