IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-00916699.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?

Author

Listed:
  • Laetitia Lepetit

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Clovis Rugemintwari

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Frank Strobel

    (University of Birmingham [Birmingham])

Abstract

We examine prospects for a monetary union in the East African Community (EAC) by developing a stylized model of policymakers' decision problem that allows for uncertain benefits derived from monetary,financial and fiscal stability, and then calibrating the model for the EAC for the period 2003-2010. When policymakers properly allow for uncertainty, none of the countries wants to pursue a monetary union based on either monetary or financial stability grounds, and only Rwanda might favor it on fiscal stability grounds; we argue that robust institutional arrangements assuring substantial improvements in monetary, financial and fiscal stability are needed to compensate.

Suggested Citation

  • Laetitia Lepetit & Clovis Rugemintwari & Frank Strobel, 2012. "Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?," Working Papers hal-00916699, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00916699
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-00916699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-00916699/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur Hazlewood, 1979. "The End Of The East African Community: What Are The Lessons For Regional Integration Schemes ?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 40-58, September.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1983. "Inflationary Finance under Discretion and Rules," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Xavier Debrun & Paul R. Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2019. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 6, pages 195-242, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Narayan K. Kishor & John Ssozi, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Proposed East African Monetary Union: An Unobserved Component Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 664-675, November.
    8. Frank Strobel, 2007. "Joining European Monetary Union: A Real Options Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 105-115, February.
    9. Sarah Sanya & Matthew Gaertner, 2012. "Assessing Bank Competition within the East African Community," IMF Working Papers 2012/032, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Buigut, Steven K. & Valev, Neven T., 2005. "Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2119-2133, December.
    11. Strobel Frank, 2009. "Financial Fragility and Crisis Union in the Asia-Pacific Region," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-12, June.
    12. Strobel, Frank, 2005. "Monetary integration and inflation preferences: A real options analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 845-860, May.
    13. Xavier Debrun & Paul R. Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2011. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(suppl_2), pages -150, May.
    14. Buigut, Steven & Valev, Neven T., 2009. "Benefits from Mutual Restraint in a Multilateral Monetary Union," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 585-594, March.
    15. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    16. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    17. Richard Podpiera & Mr. Martin Cihak, 2005. "Bank Behavior in Developing Countries: Evidence from East Africa," IMF Working Papers 2005/129, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Frank Strobel, 2011. "Bank insolvency risk and different approaches to aggregate Z-score measures: a note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1541-1543.
    19. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    20. Thomas Kigabo RUSUHUZWA & Paul Robert MASSON, 2012. "Design and Implementation of a Common Currency Area in the East African Community," Working Papers tecipa-451, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "Growth and Institutions in African Development by Augustin K. Fosu," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/033, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    2. Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2017. "A summary of a survey on proposed African monetary unions," MPRA Paper 79637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2017. "A Literature Survey On Proposed African Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 878-902, July.
    4. A. Asongu, Simplice & E. Folarin, Oludele & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2020. "The Long-Run Stability of Money in the ProposedE ast AfricanMonetary Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(3), pages 457-478.
    5. Serge Ky & Clovis Rugemintwari & Alain Sauviat, 2019. "Is fintech good for bank performance? The case of mobile money in the East African Community," Working Papers hal-02155077, HAL.
    6. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI)," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/003, African Governance and Development Institute..

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI)," Working Papers 20/003, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    2. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2017. "A summary of a survey on proposed African monetary unions," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 17/008, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2017. "A Literature Survey On Proposed African Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 878-902, July.
    4. A. Asongu, Simplice & E. Folarin, Oludele & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2020. "The Long-Run Stability of Money in the ProposedE ast AfricanMonetary Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(3), pages 457-478.
    5. Frank Strobel, 2005. "Leaving EMU: a real options perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1449-1453.
    6. Thomas Kigabo RUSUHUZWA & Paul Robert MASSON, 2012. "Design and Implementation of a Common Currency Area in the East African Community," Working Papers tecipa-451, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Aweng Peter Majok Garang & Hatice Erkekoglu, 2020. "Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 495-517, December.
    8. Mafusire Albert & Brixiova Zuzana, 2013. "Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 261-280, July.
    9. Donato Masciandaro, 1995. "Designing a central bank: Social player, monetary agent, or banking agent?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 399-410, October.
    10. William Miles, 2015. "The East African Monetary Union: Is the Level of Business Cycle Synchronization Sufficient?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 115-125, November.
    11. Joseph G. Haubrich & Joseph A. Ritter, 1996. "Dynamic commitment and imperfect policy rules," Working Papers (Old Series) 9601, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. David H. Howard, 1987. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stabilization in a developing country," International Finance Discussion Papers 314, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Herschel I. Grossman, 1987. "A Generic Model of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 2239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Haubrich, Joseph G. & Ritter, Joseph A., 2004. "Committing and reneging: A dynamic model of policy regimes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18.
    15. Bertrand Crettez, 1994. "Cohérence temporelle des politiques économiques dans un modèle avec équation d'anticipation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(4), pages 989-1008.
    16. Durevall, Dick, 2011. "East African Community: Pre-conditions for an Effective Monetary Union," Working Papers in Economics 520, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    17. Joseph G. Haubrich & Joseph A. Ritter, 1996. "Commitment as investment under uncertainty," Working Papers (Old Series) 9606, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    19. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    20. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00916699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.