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How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries?

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  • Ed Felten
  • Manav Raj
  • Robert Seamans

Abstract

Recent dramatic increases in AI language modeling capabilities has led to many questions about the effect of these technologies on the economy. In this paper we present a methodology to systematically assess the extent to which occupations, industries and geographies are exposed to advances in AI language modeling capabilities. We find that the top occupations exposed to language modeling include telemarketers and a variety of post-secondary teachers such as English language and literature, foreign language and literature, and history teachers. We find the top industries exposed to advances in language modeling are legal services and securities, commodities, and investments. We also find a positive correlation between wages and exposure to AI language modeling.

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  • Ed Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2023. "How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries?," Papers 2303.01157, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.01157
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    Cited by:

    1. Anil R. Doshi & Oliver P. Hauser, 2023. "Generative artificial intelligence enhances creativity but reduces the diversity of novel content," Papers 2312.00506, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    2. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2024. "Government size and automation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 780-807, June.
    3. Bohren, Noah & Hakimov, Rustamdjan & Lalive, Rafael, 2024. "Creative and Strategic Capabilities of Generative AI: Evidence from Large-Scale Experiments," IZA Discussion Papers 17302, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Ylenia Curci & Nathalie Greenan & Silvia Napolitano, 2024. "Innovating for the good or for the bad. An EU-wide analysis of the impact of technological transformation on job polarisation and unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2024-02, TEPP.
    5. Pablo Casas & Concepción Román, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence in the early retirement decision," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 583-618, August.
    6. Dario Guarascio & Jelena Reljic & Roman Stollinger, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Employment: A Look into the Crystal Ball," LEM Papers Series 2023/34, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Jin Liu & Xingchen Xu & Xi Nan & Yongjun Li & Yong Tan, 2023. ""Generate" the Future of Work through AI: Empirical Evidence from Online Labor Markets," Papers 2308.05201, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    8. Stephany, Fabian & Teutloff, Ole, 2024. "What is the price of a skill? The value of complementarity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1).
    9. Christian Peukert & Florian Abeillon & Jérémie Haese & Franziska Kaiser & Alexander Staub, 2024. "Strategic Behavior and AI Training Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 11099, CESifo.
    10. Evangelos Katsamakas & Oleg V. Pavlov & Ryan Saklad, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and the transformation of higher education institutions," Papers 2402.08143, arXiv.org.
    11. Christian Peukert & Florian Abeillon & J'er'emie Haese & Franziska Kaiser & Alexander Staub, 2024. "Strategic Behavior and AI Training Data," Papers 2404.18445, arXiv.org.
    12. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    13. Caleb Peppiatt, 2024. "The Future of Work: Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, and What Can Be Done About It. A Literature Review," Papers 2408.13300, arXiv.org.
    14. Ikumo Isono & Hilmy Prilliadi, 2023. "Accelerating Artificial Intelligence Discussions in ASEAN: Addressing Disparities, Challenges, and Regional Policy Imperatives," Working Papers DP-2023-16, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    15. Fossen, Frank M. & McLemore, Trevor & Sorgner, Alina, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and Entrepreneurship," IZA Discussion Papers 17055, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Mourelatos, Evangelos & Zervas, Panagiotis & Lagios, Dimitris & Tzimas, Giannis, 2024. "Can AI Bridge the Gender Gap in Competitiveness?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1404, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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