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Opinion Dynamics in Financial Markets via Random Networks

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  • Mateus F. B. Granha
  • Andr'e L. M. Vilela
  • Chao Wang
  • Kenric P. Nelson
  • H. Eugene Stanley

Abstract

We investigate the financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize the individuals in a financial market by their trading strategy, namely noise traders and fundamentalists. The opinion of a local majority compels the market exchanging behavior of noise traders, whereas the global behavior of the market influences the fundamentalist agents' decisions. We introduce a noise parameter $q$ to represent a level of anxiety and perceived uncertainty regarding the market behavior, enabling the possibility for an adrift financial action. We place the individuals as nodes in an Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graph, where the links represent their social interaction. At a given time, they assume one of two possible opinion states $\pm 1$ regarding buying or selling an asset. The model exhibits such fundamental qualitative and quantitative real-world market features as the distribution of logarithmic returns with fat-tails, clustered volatility, and long-term correlation of returns. We use Student's t distributions to fit the histograms of logarithmic returns, showing the gradual shift from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime, depending on the fraction of fundamentalist agents. We also compare our results with the distribution of logarithmic returns of several real-world financial indices.

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  • Mateus F. B. Granha & Andr'e L. M. Vilela & Chao Wang & Kenric P. Nelson & H. Eugene Stanley, 2022. "Opinion Dynamics in Financial Markets via Random Networks," Papers 2201.07214, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2201.07214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliveira, Igor V.G. & Wang, Chao & Dong, Gaogao & Du, Ruijin & Fiore, Carlos E. & Vilela, André L.M. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2024. "Entropy production on cooperative opinion dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Rytis Kazakeviv{c}ius & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2023. "Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in the scaled voter model," Papers 2301.08088, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.

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