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Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago

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  • Gian Maria Campedelli
  • Serena Favarin
  • Alberto Aziani
  • Alex R. Piquero

Abstract

Recent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance our understanding on how public interventions affected criminal activities at a finer spatial scale. The analysis relies on a two-step methodology. First, it estimates the community-wise causal impact of social distancing and shelter-in-place policies adopted in Chicago via Structural Bayesian Time-Series across four crime categories (i.e., burglary, assault, narcotics-related offenses, and robbery). Once the models detected the direction, magnitude and significance of the trend changes, Firth's Logistic Regression is used to investigate the factors associated to the statistically significant crime reduction found in the first step of the analyses. Statistical results first show that changes in crime trends differ across communities and crime types. This suggests that beyond the results of aggregate models lies a complex picture characterized by diverging patterns. Second, regression models provide mixed findings regarding the correlates associated with significant crime reduction: several relations have opposite directions across crimes with population being the only factor that is stably and positively associated with significant crime reduction.

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  • Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2011.05658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Behavioral issues

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    Cited by:

    1. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Halford, Eric & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2022. "Anti-social behaviour in the coronavirus pandemic," SocArXiv rt2y4, Center for Open Science.
    3. Omid Mansourihanis & Mohammad Javad Maghsoodi Tilaki & Shiva Sheikhfarshi & Fatemeh Mohseni & Ebrahim Seyedebrahimi, 2024. "Addressing Urban Management Challenges for Sustainable Development: Analyzing the Impact of Neighborhood Deprivation on Crime Distribution in Chicago," Societies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    6. Wolff, Kevin T. & Intravia, Jonathan & Baglivio, Michael T. & Piquero, Alex R., 2022. "Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Johnson, Shane & Nikolovska, Manja, 2022. "The effect of COVID-19 restrictions on routine activities and online crime," SocArXiv ze49b, Center for Open Science.
    8. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2022. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis: An internet search activity‐based measure for the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 498-518, April.
    9. Abrams, David S., 2021. "COVID and crime: An early empirical look," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Payne, Jason Leslie & Langfield, Cameron Thomas, 2021. "Drug offence detection during the pandemic: a spatiotemporal study of drug markets," SocArXiv sbh7j, Center for Open Science.
    11. Hong, Sunmin & Jeong, Dohyo & Kim, Pyung, 2024. "Have offender demographics changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from money mules in South Korea," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Vilalta, Carlos & Fondevila, Gustavo & Massa, Ricardo, 2022. "Virus containment measures and homicide in Mexico: An assessment of community strain theory," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Xile Hui & Zeeshan Rasool & Sajid Ali & Shaukat Hussain Bhatti, 2024. "Asymmetric Impact of Pandemic Uncertainty on Drug Crimes: A Comparative Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 741-763, July.
    14. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Maria P. Rana, 2023. "Crime in the era of COVID‐19: Evidence from England," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1100-1130, November.
    15. Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    16. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    17. Xinyu Zhang & Peng Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Urban Facilities on Crime during the Pre- and Pandemic Periods: A Practical Study in Beijing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-16, January.
    18. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A. & Frank, Richard & Pringle, Darren, 2022. "Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Juan F Domínguez D & Johnny Truong & Jake Burnett & Lata Satyen & Hamed Akhlaghi & Julian Stella & Nick Rushworth & Karen Caeyenberghs, 2022. "Effects of the Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Assault-Related Head Injury in Melbourne: A Retrospective Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, December.
    20. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," SocArXiv cw6a4, Center for Open Science.
    21. Payne, Jason L. & Langfield, Cameron T., 2021. "Drug offence detection during the pandemic: A spatiotemporal study of drug markets," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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