IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/z4m8t.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime

Author

Listed:
  • Payne, Jason Leslie

    (Australian National University)

  • Morgan, Anthony
  • Piquero, Alex R.

Abstract

Since first diagnosed in late 2019, there have been more than 4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than a quarter of a million deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the virus through the adoption of unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Whether these policies have altered criminal activity is an important question. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March and April, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offense and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March and April 2020. We conclude that by the end of April, rates of common, serious and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years, and for serious assault and sexual assault the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached in Queensland has remained unchanged throughout the first two months of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony & Piquero, Alex R., 2020. "COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime," SocArXiv z4m8t, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:z4m8t
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/z4m8t
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5ebbe1160238a90073336a3a/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/z4m8t?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amber Peterman & Alina Potts & Megan O'Donnell & Kelly Thompson & Niyati Shah & Sabine Oertelt-Prigione & Nicole van Gelder, 2020. "Pandemics and Violence Against Women and Children," Working Papers 528, Center for Global Development.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Payne, Jason Leslie & Langfield, Cameron Thomas, 2021. "Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia," SocArXiv 2bxyw_v1, Center for Open Science.
    2. Mengqing Long & Jia Huang & Yishun Peng & Yawen Mai & Xian Yuan & Xinhua Yang, 2022. "The Short- and Long-Term Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Child Maltreatment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Payne, Jason Leslie & Langfield, Cameron Thomas, 2021. "Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia," SocArXiv 2bxyw, Center for Open Science.
    4. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2022. "Crime and mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown: a preliminary empirical exploration," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 106-113, January.
    5. Wolff, Kevin T. & Intravia, Jonathan & Baglivio, Michael T. & Piquero, Alex R., 2022. "Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.
    7. Aaron Gold & Anup Phayal & Brandon Prins, 2023. "The unexpected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime crime: Evidence from Indonesia and Nigeria," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 7-23, March.
    8. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A. & Frank, Richard & Pringle, Darren, 2022. "Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2020. "Can't Leave You Now! Intimate Partner Violence under Forced Coexistence and Economic Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 13570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," SocArXiv cw6a4_v1, Center for Open Science.
    11. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Haddad, Joanne & Mikola, Derek, 2020. "Covid-19, Family Stress and Domestic Violence: Remote Work, Isolation and Bargaining Power," GLO Discussion Paper Series 571, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Louis-Philippe Béladn & Abel Brodeur & Joanne Haddad & Derek Mikola, 2021. "Determinants of Family Stress and Domestic Violence: Lessons from the COVID-19 Outbreak," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 47(3), pages 439-459, September.
    15. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2021. "Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    16. Hong, Sunmin & Jeong, Dohyo & Kim, Pyung, 2024. "Have offender demographics changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from money mules in South Korea," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    18. Ryan Thomson & Rebecca Mosier & Michelle Worosz, 2023. "COVID research across the social sciences in 2020: a bibliometric approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(6), pages 3377-3399, June.
    19. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," SocArXiv cw6a4, Center for Open Science.
    20. Payne, Jason L. & Langfield, Cameron T., 2021. "Drug offence detection during the pandemic: A spatiotemporal study of drug markets," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mahmud, Mahreen & Riley, Emma, 2021. "Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Francisco Cabrera-Hernández & Marí­a Padilla-Romo, 2020. "Hidden Violence: How COVID-19 School Closures Reduced the Reporting of Child Maltreatment," Working Papers 2020-02, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    4. Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Salemi, Colette, 2021. "COVID-19 and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Abiodun Olusola Omotayo & Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso & Saidat Adebola Daud & Oluwadara Pelumi Omotayo & Babatunde Afeez Adeniyi, 2022. "Rising Food Prices and Farming Households Food Insecurity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Policy Implications from SouthWest Nigeria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    7. Vandana Sharma & Annika Gompers & Jocelyn T. D. Kelly & Erin Patrick & Christine Heckman & Arsema Solomon & Jennifer Scott, 2021. "Gender-Based Violence Risk Mitigation by Non-GBV Specialists Prior to and during COVID-19: A Global Survey of Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Humanitarian Practitioners," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Lina Martínez & Eduardo Lora & Andres David Espada, 2022. "The Consequences of the Pandemic for Subjective Well-Being: Data for Improving Policymaking," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2020. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis," IFS Working Papers W20/29, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Catherine Ragasa & Isabel Lambrecht & Kristi Mahrt & Zin Wai Aung & Michael Wang, 2021. "Immediate impacts of COVID‐19 on female and male farmers in central Myanmar: Phone‐based household survey evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 505-523, May.
    11. Enwa, Sarah & Oyita, Governor Ekene, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Livelihood of Garri Agribusiness Owners in Ukwuani Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria," Nigerian Agricultural Policy Research Journal (NAPReJ), Agricultural Policy Research Network (APRNet), vol. 10(01), June.
    12. Agüero, Jorge M., 2021. "COVID-19 and the rise of intimate partner violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Chukwuemeka Emmanuel Ibeh & Emmanuel Chikezie Ijioma & Ikechukwu Ogeze Ukeje & Akonye Enyioma Joseph & Sampson Obum Amulu & Faith Ngozi Onyekere, 2024. "Pandemic Implications on Socio-Economic Wellbeing of Women: An Examination of Lockdown Domestic Violence Experience," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 281-298, March.
    14. Susan M. Jack & Michelle L. Munro‐Kramer & Jessica R. Williams & Donna Schminkey & Elizabeth Tomlinson & Larissa Jennings Mayo‐Wilson & Caroline Bradbury‐Jones & Jacquelyn C. Campbell, 2021. "Recognising and responding to intimate partner violence using telehealth: Practical guidance for nurses and midwives," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3-4), pages 588-602, February.
    15. Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony, 2020. "COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia," SocArXiv g4kh7, Center for Open Science.
    16. M. Amelia Gibbons & Tommy E. Murphy & Martín A. Rossi, 2021. "Confinement and intimate partner violence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 349-361, August.
    17. Selin Köksal & Luca Maria Pesando & Valentina Rotondi & Ebru Şanlıtürk, 2022. "Harnessing the Potential of Google Searches for Understanding Dynamics of Intimate Partner Violence Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(3), pages 517-545, August.
    18. Bettio, Francesca & Tavares, Fernando Flores & Ticci, Elisa, 2024. "Intimate partner violence during lockdown in Tuscany, Italy: economic shock or confinement-related stressors?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1507, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Biroli, Pietro & Bosworth, Steven J. & Della Giusta, Marina & Di Girolamo, Amalia & Jaworska, Sylvia & Vollen, Jeremy, 2020. "Family Life in Lockdown," IZA Discussion Papers 13398, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
      • Pietro Biroli & Steven Bosworth & Marina Della Giusta & Amalia Di Girolamo & Sylvia Jaworska & Jeremy Vollen, 2020. "Family Life in Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-051, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    20. A. Moyo (PhD) & S. Mhembwe (PhD), 2022. "Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Vulnerable Urban Women in The Informal Sector: A Case of Gweru Urban," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(11), pages 391-396, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:z4m8t. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.