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A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Author

Listed:
  • Amy E. Nivette

    (Utrecht University
    Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR))

  • Renee Zahnow

    (University of Queensland)

  • Raul Aguilar

    (Mossos d’Esquadra, Catalan Police)

  • Andri Ahven

    (Ministry of Justice)

  • Shai Amram

    (Hebrew University)

  • Barak Ariel

    (Hebrew University
    University of Cambridge)

  • María José Arosemena Burbano

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Roberta Astolfi

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Dirk Baier

    (Institute of Delinquency and Crime Prevention, Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften (ZHAW) School of Social Work)

  • Hyung-Min Bark

    (Korean Institute of Criminology)

  • Joris E. H. Beijers

    (Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR))

  • Marcelo Bergman

    (Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguridad y Violencia (CELIV), Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero)

  • Gregory Breetzke

    (Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria)

  • I. Alberto Concha-Eastman

    (Secretariat of Health)

  • Sophie Curtis-Ham

    (Evidence Based Policing Centre, New Zealand Police)

  • Ryan Davenport

    (University College London
    London Metropolitan Police)

  • Carlos Díaz

    (Catholic University of Uruguay)

  • Diego Fleitas

    (Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguridad y Violencia (CELIV), Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero)

  • Manne Gerell

    (Malmö University)

  • Kwang-Ho Jang

    (Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute)

  • Juha Kääriäinen

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Tapio Lappi-Seppälä

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Woon-Sik Lim

    (Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute)

  • Rosa Loureiro Revilla

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Lorraine Mazerolle

    (University of Queensland)

  • Gorazd Meško

    (University of Maribor)

  • Noemí Pereda

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Maria F. T. Peres

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Simon Rose

    (University of Cambridge
    London Metropolitan Police)

  • Robert Svensson

    (Malmö University)

  • Nico Trajtenberg

    (Cardiff University)

  • Tanja Lippe

    (Utrecht University)

  • Joran Veldkamp

    (Utrecht University)

  • Carlos J. Vilalta Perdomo

    (Center for Research in Geospatial Information Sciences (CentroGeo))

  • Manuel P. Eisner

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Zürich)

Abstract

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01139-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
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    3. Kai Barron & Charles D. H. Parry & Debbie Bradshaw & Rob Dorrington & Pam Groenewald & Ria Laubscher & Richard Matzopoulos, 2024. "Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 938-955, July.
    4. Aaron Gold & Anup Phayal & Brandon Prins, 2023. "The unexpected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime crime: Evidence from Indonesia and Nigeria," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 7-23, March.
    5. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A. & Frank, Richard & Pringle, Darren, 2022. "Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Teresia Njonge, 2023. "Influence of Psychological Well-Being and School Factors on Delinquency, During The Covid-19 Period Among Secondary School Students in Selected Schools in Nakuru County: Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(2), pages 1175-1189, February.
    7. Acevedo, Ivonne & Castellani, Francesca & Lotti, Giulia & Székely, Miguel, 2022. "Labor Market Gender Gaps in the Time of COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12568, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Jonathan T. Rothwell & Alexandru Cojocaru & Rajesh Srinivasan & Yeon Soo Kim, 2024. "Global evidence on the economic effects of disease suppression during COVID-19," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Frith, Michael J. & Bowers, Kate J. & Johnson, Shane D., 2022. "Household occupancy and burglary: A case study using COVID-19 restrictions," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Lee, Kangoh, 2023. "Working from home as an economic and social change: A review," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Roxana Gutierrez-Romero & Nayeli Salgado, 2022. "New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement," Working Papers 108, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.
    13. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2023. "The Initial and Dynamic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime in New Zealand," Working Papers 2023-03, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    14. Payne, Jason L. & Langfield, Cameron T., 2021. "Drug offence detection during the pandemic: A spatiotemporal study of drug markets," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2022. "On the stabilizing role of cash for societies," IMFS Working Paper Series 167, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    16. Johnson, Shane & Nikolovska, Manja, 2022. "The effect of COVID-19 restrictions on routine activities and online crime," SocArXiv ze49b, Center for Open Science.
    17. Vilalta, Carlos & Fondevila, Gustavo & Massa, Ricardo, 2022. "Virus containment measures and homicide in Mexico: An assessment of community strain theory," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Kandaswamy Paramasivan & Rahul Subburaj & Saish Jaiswal & Nandan Sudarsanam, 2022. "Empirical evidence of the impact of mobility on property crimes during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    19. Randy Seepersad & Corin Bailey & Lina Marmolejo, 2023. "Social Solidarity and Crime: The COVID-19 Effect in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 39(4), pages 421-444, December.
    20. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana, 2022. "Conflicts increased in Africa shortly after COVID-19 lockdowns, but welfare assistance reduced fatalities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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