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Are temporary value-added tax reductions passed on to consumers? Evidence from Germany's stimulus

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  • Felix Montag
  • Alina Sagimuldina
  • Monika Schnitzer

Abstract

This paper provides the first estimates of the pass-through rate of the ongoing temporary value-added tax (VAT) reduction, which is part of the German fiscal response to COVID-19. Using a unique dataset containing the universe of price changes at fuel stations in Germany and France in June and July 2020, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy and find that pass-through is fast and substantial but remains incomplete for all fuel types. Furthermore, we find a high degree of heterogeneity between the pass-through estimates for different fuel types. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that pass-through rates are higher for customer groups who are more likely to exert competitive pressure by shopping for lower prices. Our results have important implications for the effectiveness of the stimulus measure and the cost-effective design of unconventional fiscal policy.

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  • Felix Montag & Alina Sagimuldina & Monika Schnitzer, 2020. "Are temporary value-added tax reductions passed on to consumers? Evidence from Germany's stimulus," Papers 2008.08511, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.08511
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment," NBER Working Papers 9203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2022. "Managing Households’ Expectations with Unconventional Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1597-1642.
    3. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni, 2019. "Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in France," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 38-63, February.
    4. Kosonen, Tuomas, 2015. "More and cheaper haircuts after VAT cut? On the efficiency and incidence of service sector consumption taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-100.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Przemyslaw Brandt & Mosler Martin & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Verteilungswirkungen des Kinderbonus und der temporären Mehrwertsteuersenkung im Jahr 2020," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(02), pages 45-50, February.
    2. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2020. "The Pass-Through of Temporary VAT Rate Cuts in German Supermarket Retail," ifo Working Paper Series 341, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Hat die Mehrwertsteuersenkung den Konsum belebt?," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(1), January.
    4. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2021. "The Pass-Through of Temporary VAT Rate Cuts: Evidence from German Supermarket Retail," CESifo Working Paper Series 9149, CESifo.
    5. Gregor, Leonard & Haucap, Justus, 2024. "The Rise of Refinery Margins," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302420, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Mats Petter Kahl, 2023. "Was the German fuel discount passed on to consumers?," Working Paper Series in Economics 419, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    7. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Van Droogenbroeck, Ellen, 2024. "Temporary VAT rate cuts and food prices in e-commerce," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Josef Baumgartner & Gabriel Felbermayr & Claudia Kettner-Marx & Angela Köppl & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Simon Loretz & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2022. "Stark steigende Energiepreise – Optionen für eine Entlastung von Haushalten und Unternehmen," WIFO Research Briefs 6, WIFO.
    9. Phil Dean & Maclean Gaulin & Nathan Seegert & Mu-Jeung Yang, 2023. "The COVID-19 state sales tax windfall," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1408-1434, October.
    10. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2022. "Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2004, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Matthias Firgo, 2024. "Price effects and pass-through of a VAT increase on restaurants in Germany: causal evidence for the first months and a mega sports event," Papers 2409.01180, arXiv.org.
    12. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2020. "Die Preiseffekte der Mehrwertsteuersenkung in deutschen Supermärkten: Eine Analyse für mehr als 60 000 Produkte," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(13), November.
    13. Simon Loretz & Oliver Fritz, 2021. "Wirkungen der im Zuge der COVID-19-Krise reduzierten Mehrwertsteuersätze. Erfahrungswerte aus rezenten Reformen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67258, April.

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