IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v200y2021ics0047272721001080.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can payroll tax cuts help firms during recessions?

Author

Listed:
  • Benzarti, Youssef
  • Harju, Jarkko

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of payroll tax cuts on firm-level employment and balance-sheet outcomes during economic downturns. We use two regional payroll tax cuts in Finland as well as the onset of the Great Recession to estimate the effect of the recession on firms treated by the payroll tax cuts compared to a similar control group. When implemented, prior to the Great Recession, we estimate that the payroll tax cuts had limited effects on employment and balance-sheet outcomes of firms located in the treated regions. However, when the recession starts, some of its negative effects were substantially hampered by the previously enacted payroll tax cuts in treated firms. These employment effects are exacerbated for men and low-skilled employees. We also find that sales and profits in treated firms respond differently in treated firms during the recession. We provide some evidence showing that firms that are liquidity constrained are the ones that exhibit the strongest response. This shows that payroll tax cuts can make firms more resilient during downturns, possibly by relaxing liquidity constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Benzarti, Youssef & Harju, Jarkko, 2021. "Can payroll tax cuts help firms during recessions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:200:y:2021:i:c:s0047272721001080
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272721001080
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104472?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2014. "People, Places, and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 629-662, August.
    2. Emmanuel Saez & Benjamin Schoefer & David Seim, 2019. "Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1717-1763, May.
    3. Huttunen, Kristiina & Pirttilä, Jukka & Uusitalo, Roope, 2013. "The employment effects of low-wage subsidies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 49-60.
    4. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Incidence of Payroll Taxation: Evidence from Chile," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 72-101, July.
    5. Neumark, David & Simpson, Helen, 2015. "Place-Based Policies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1197-1287, Elsevier.
    6. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 152-181, May.
    7. Youssef Benzarti & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2020. "Does Mandating Social Insurance Affect Entrepreneurial Activity?," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 255-268, June.
    8. Ku, Hyejin & Schönberg, Uta & Schreiner, Ragnhild C., 2020. "Do place-based tax incentives create jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Petri Böckerman & Roope Uusitalo, 2009. "Minimum Wages and Youth Employment: Evidence from the Finnish Retail Trade Sector," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 388-405, June.
    10. Youssef Benzarti & Jarkko Harju, 2021. "Using Payroll Tax Variation to Unpack the Black Box of Firm-Level Production," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2737-2764.
    11. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Kosonen, 2020. "What Goes Up May Not Come Down: Asymmetric Incidence of Value-Added Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(12), pages 4438-4474.
    12. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2019. "Optimal Public Expenditure with Inefficient Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(3), pages 1301-1331.
    13. Emmanuel Saez & Manos Matsaganis & Panos Tsakloglou, 2012. "Earnings Determination and Taxes: Evidence From a Cohort-Based Payroll Tax Reform in Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 493-533.
    14. Bozio, Antoine & Breda, Thomas & Grenet, Julien, 2019. "Does Tax-Benefit Linkage Matter for the Incidence of Social Security Contributions?," IZA Discussion Papers 12502, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Harju, Jarkko & Kosonen, Tuomas & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2018. "Firm types, price-setting strategies, and consumption-tax incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 48-72.
    16. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    17. Suni, Paavo & Vihriälä, Vesa, 2016. "Finland and Its Northern Peers in the Great Recession," ETLA Reports 49, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    18. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni, 2019. "Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in France," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 38-63, February.
    19. Danny Yagan, 2015. "Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3531-3563, December.
    20. Kosonen, Tuomas, 2015. "More and cheaper haircuts after VAT cut? On the efficiency and incidence of service sector consumption taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-100.
    21. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    22. Ossi Korkeamäki & Roope Uusitalo, 2009. "Employment and wage effects of a payroll-tax cut—evidence from a regional experiment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(6), pages 753-772, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jinyoung & Kim, Seonghoon & Koh, Kanghyock, 2022. "Labor market institutions and the incidence of payroll taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Sophie Cottet, 2024. "Payroll Tax Reductions for Minimum Wage Workers: Relative Labor Cost or Cash Windfall Effects?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11076, CESifo.
    3. Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Anton Gidehag & Niklas Rudholm, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Reduced Labor Costs? Evidence from the 2007 Swedish Payroll Tax Reform," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 315-338, September.
    4. Jacob, Martin & Vossebürger, Robert, 2022. "The role of personal income taxes in corporate investment decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Sam Desiere & Bart Cockx, 2021. "How effective are hiring subsidies to reduce long-term unemployment among prime-aged jobseekers? Evidence from Belgium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1025, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Audrey Guo, 2023. "Payroll Tax Incidence: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance," Papers 2304.05605, arXiv.org.
    8. Enrico Rubolino, 2022. "Taxing the Gender Gap: Labor Market Effects of a Payroll Tax Cut for Women in Italy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emmanuel Saez & Benjamin Schoefer & David Seim, 2019. "Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1717-1763, May.
    2. Enrico Rubolino, 2022. "Taxing the Gender Gap: Labor Market Effects of a Payroll Tax Cut for Women in Italy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    3. Kim, Jinyoung & Kim, Seonghoon & Koh, Kanghyock, 2022. "Labor market institutions and the incidence of payroll taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. Egebark, Johan & Kaunitz, Niklas, 2018. "Payroll taxes and youth labor demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 163-177.
    5. Ku, Hyejin & Schönberg, Uta & Schreiner, Ragnhild C., 2020. "Do place-based tax incentives create jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Audrey Guo, 2023. "Payroll Tax Incidence: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance," Papers 2304.05605, arXiv.org.
    7. Giulia Giupponi & Camille Landais & Alice Lapeyre, 2022. "Should We Insure Workers or Jobs during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 29-54, Spring.
    8. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Santiago Garriga & Dario Tortarolo, 2020. "Wage effects of employer-mediated transfers," Discussion Papers 2020-08, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    10. Julien Martin & Florian Mayneris, 2022. "Revue de littérature sur l’incidence fiscale des taxes sur les entreprises," CIRANO Project Reports 2022rp-06, CIRANO.
    11. Hildegunn E. Stokke, 2021. "Regional payroll tax cuts and individual wages: heterogeneous effects of worker ability and firm productivity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1360-1384, December.
    12. Hyejin Ku & Uta Schönberg & Ragnhild C. Schreiner, 2018. "How Do Firms Respond to Place-Based Tax Incentives?," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1811, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    13. Guo, Audrey, 2020. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxation on Multi-Establishment Firms," MPRA Paper 97919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Matthias Collischon & Kamila Cygan-Rehm & Regina T. Riphahn, 2021. "Employment effects of payroll tax subsidies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1219, October.
    15. Charles Boissel & Adrien Matray, 2021. "Dividend Taxes and the Allocation of Capital," Working Papers 2021-39, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    16. Nivala, Annika, 2024. "(No) Effects of Subsidizing the First Employee: Evidence of a Low Take-up Puzzle Among Firms," Working Papers 166, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Adrien Matray & Charles Boissel, 2020. "Higher Dividend Taxes, No Problem! Evidence from Taxing Entrepreneurs in France," Working Papers 276, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    18. Bart Cockx & Sam Desiere, 2023. "Labour costs and the decision to hire the first employee," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1071, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    19. Youssef Benzarti & Jarkko Harju, 2021. "Using Payroll Tax Variation to Unpack the Black Box of Firm-Level Production," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2737-2764.
    20. Isaac Marcelin & Daniel Brink & David Oluwatosin Fadiran & Hammed Adedeji Amusa, 2019. "Subsidized labour and firms: Investment, profitability, and leverage," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-50, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor costs; Place-based policies; Great recession; Payroll taxes; Employment; Wages; Firms; Fiscal multipliers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:200:y:2021:i:c:s0047272721001080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.