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The Pass-Through of Temporary VAT Rate Cuts in German Supermarket Retail

Author

Listed:
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Florian Neumeier
  • Daniel Stöhlker

Abstract

On 1 July 2020, value added tax (VAT) rates were reduced in Germany to fight the economic consequences of the Corona pandemic. The VAT rate reduction is temporary as rates will return to their previous level on 1 January 2021. We study the effects of the temporary VAT rate cut on German supermarket retail prices using an extensive webscrapped data set covering the daily prices of roughly 190,000 products. To identify the causal price effects, we compare the development of prices in Germany to those in Austria. Our findings indicate a nearly full pass-through of the VAT rate reduction on prices. On average, prices in German supermarket retail decreased by 2% after the implementation of the VAT rate reduction. We also provide evidence that prices in more competitive product markets decreased to a larger extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2020. "The Pass-Through of Temporary VAT Rate Cuts in German Supermarket Retail," ifo Working Paper Series 341, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Richard Blundell, 2009. "Assessing the Temporary VAT Cut Policy in the UK," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 31-38, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Drolsbach & Maximilian Maurice Gail & Phil-Adrian Klotz, 2022. "Pass-through of Temporary Fuel Tax Reductions: Evidence from Europe," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202239, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Georg Schneider & Frank Stähler & Georg U. Thunecke, 2022. "The (Non-)Neutrality of Value-Added Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9663, CESifo.
    3. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Hat die Mehrwertsteuersenkung den Konsum belebt?," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(1), January.
    4. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Van Droogenbroeck, Ellen, 2024. "Temporary VAT rate cuts and food prices in e-commerce," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2022. "Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2004, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Felix Montag & Alina Sagimuldina & Monika Schnitzer, 2021. "Does Tax Policy Work When Consumers Have Imperfect Price Information? Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9138, CESifo.
    7. Lydia Dimitrakopoulou & Christos Genakos & Themistoklis Kampouris & Stella Papadokonstantaki, 2023. "VAT Pass-Through and Competition: Evidence from the Greek Islands," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2039, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value added tax; tax incidence; price effects; decoy; political alignment; competition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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