IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i23p15525-d981405.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Liu

    (Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
    Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0131, USA)

  • Jiayu Chang

    (Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Dongping Long

    (Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Heng Liu

    (Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

Abstract

Existing research suggests that COVID-19 lockdowns tend to contribute to a decrease in overall urban crime rates. Most studies have compared pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to lockdown periods in Western cities. Few have touched on the fine variations during lockdowns. Equally rare are intracity studies conducted in China. This study tested the relationship between violent crime and COVID-19 lockdown policies in ZG City in southern China. The distance from the isolation location to the nearest violent crime site, called “the nearest crime distance”, is a key variable in this study. Kernel density mapping and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are used to compare the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to the lockdown period. Panel logistic regression is used to test the fine variations among different stages during the lockdown. The result found an overall decline in violent crime during the lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown. Violent crime moved away from the isolation location during the lockdown. This outward spread continued for the first two months after the lifting of the lockdown, suggesting a lasting effect of the lockdown policy. During the lockdown, weekly changes in COVID-19 risk ratings at the district level in ZG City also affected changes in the nearest crime distance. In particular, an increase in the risk rating increased that distance, and a drop in the risk rating decreased that distance. These findings add new results to the literature and could have policy implications for joint crime and pandemic prevention and control.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Liu & Jiayu Chang & Dongping Long & Heng Liu, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-10, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:23:p:15525-:d:981405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/23/15525/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/23/15525/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Payne, Jason Leslie & Morgan, Anthony, 2020. "COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia," SocArXiv g4kh7, Center for Open Science.
    2. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Gian Maria Campedelli & Alberto Aziani & Serena Favarin, 2020. "Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles," Papers 2003.11021, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A., 2020. "Show me a man or a woman alone and I'll show you a saint: Changes in the frequency of criminal incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    2. Langton, Samuel & Farrell, Graham & Dixon, Anthony, 2020. "Six Months In: Pandemic Crime Trends in England and Wales," SocArXiv t7ne8, Center for Open Science.
    3. Carter, Travis M. & Turner, Noah D., 2021. "Examining the immediate effects of COVID-19 on residential and commercial burglaries in Michigan: An interrupted time-series analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," SocArXiv cw6a4, Center for Open Science.
    5. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2023. "The Initial and Dynamic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime in New Zealand," Working Papers 2023-03, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    6. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A. & Frank, Richard & Pringle, Darren, 2022. "Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Solmaz Moslehi & Jaai Parasnis & Massimiliano Tani & Josephina Vejayaratnam, 2021. "Assaults during lockdown in New South Wales and Victoria," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 24(2), pages 199-212.
    9. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    10. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2022. "Crime and mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown: a preliminary empirical exploration," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 106-113, January.
    11. Kandaswamy Paramasivan & Rahul Subburaj & Saish Jaiswal & Nandan Sudarsanam, 2022. "Empirical evidence of the impact of mobility on property crimes during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2022. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis: An internet search activity‐based measure for the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 498-518, April.
    13. Goncalves, Vitor S. & Stafford, Mark C., 2024. "The effects of Covid-19 stay-at-home orders on street and cybercrimes in a Brazilian city," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Matthew Valasik & Shannon E. Reid, 2021. "East Side Story: Disaggregating Gang Homicides in East Los Angeles," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    15. Xinyu Zhang & Peng Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Urban Facilities on Crime during the Pre- and Pandemic Periods: A Practical Study in Beijing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Jun Zhuo & Mengmeng Hao & Fangyu Ding & Jiping Dong & Dong Jiang & Shuai Chen, 2024. "The spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of cybercrime in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Piquero, Alex R. & Jennings, Wesley G. & Jemison, Erin & Kaukinen, Catherine & Knaul, Felicia Marie, 2021. "Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic - Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2020. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis," IFS Working Papers W20/29, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Takaku, Reo & Yokoyama, Izumi, 2021. "What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    20. Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:23:p:15525-:d:981405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.