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How Safe are European Safe Bonds? An Analysis from the Perspective of Modern Portfolio Credit Risk Models

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  • Rudiger Frey
  • Kevin Kurt
  • Camilla Damian

Abstract

Several proposals for the reform of the euro area advocate the creation of a market in synthetic securities backed by portfolios of sovereign bonds. Most debated are the so-called European Safe Bonds or ESBies proposed by Brunnermeier, Langfield, Pagano,Reis, Van Nieuwerburgh and Vayanos (2017). The potential benefits of ESBies and other bond-backed securities hinge on the assertion that these products are really safe. In this paper we provide a comprehensive quantitative study of the risks associated with ESBies and related products, using an affine credit risk model with regime switching as vehicle for our analysis. We discuss a recent proposal of Standard and Poors for the rating of ESBies, we analyse the impact of model parameters and attachment points on the size and the volatility of the credit spread of ESBies and we consider several approaches to assess the market risk of ESBies. Moreover, we compare ESBies to synthetic securities created by pooling the senior tranche of national bonds as suggested by Leandro and Zettelmeyer(2019). The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the policy implications from our analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Frey & Kevin Kurt & Camilla Damian, 2020. "How Safe are European Safe Bonds? An Analysis from the Perspective of Modern Portfolio Credit Risk Models," Papers 2001.11249, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2001.11249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
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    4. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    5. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014. "Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 151-167.
    6. Robert Elliott & Tak Kuen Siu, 2009. "On Markov-modulated Exponential-affine Bond Price Formulae," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt, Kevin & Frey, Rüdiger, 2022. "Markov-modulated affine processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 391-422.
    2. Kevin Kurt & Rudiger Frey, 2021. "Markov-Modulated Affine Processes," Papers 2106.16240, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    3. Sam Langfield, 2020. "Bridge over Troubled Monetary Union: A Reply to De Grauwe & Ji," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(S1), pages 1-10, September.

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