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Pricing of discount bonds with a Markov switching regime

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  • Robert Elliott
  • Katsumasa Nishide

Abstract

We consider a Markov switching regime and price a discount bond using a CIR-type short rate model. An explicit formula is obtained for the bond price which includes the solution of a matrix ODE. Our model is easy to calculate and captures the effect of regime uncertainty in the price and term structure. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Elliott & Katsumasa Nishide, 2014. "Pricing of discount bonds with a Markov switching regime," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 509-522, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:10:y:2014:i:3:p:509-522
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-013-0244-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    2. Asbjørn T. Hansen & Rolf Poulsen, 2000. "A simple regime switching term structure model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 409-429.
    3. Robert Elliott & Rogemar Mamon, 2002. "An interest rate model with a Markovian mean reverting level," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 454-458.
    4. Robert Elliott & Tak Kuen Siu, 2009. "On Markov-modulated Exponential-affine Bond Price Formulae," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15.
    5. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    6. Yoosef Maghsoodi, 1996. "Solution Of The Extended Cir Term Structure And Bond Option Valuation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-109, January.
    7. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    8. Robert J. Elliott & John van der Hoek, 2001. "Stochastic flows and the forward measure," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 511-525.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mesias Alfeus, 2019. "Stochastic Modelling of New Phenomena in Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2019, January-A.
    2. Mengzhe Zhang & Leunglung Chan, 2016. "Saddlepoint approximations to option price in a regime-switching model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 55-69, February.
    3. Daniela Neykova & Marcos Escobar & Rudi Zagst, 2015. "Optimal investment in multidimensional Markov-modulated affine models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 503-530, November.
    4. Mesias Alfeus & Ludger Overbeck & Erik Schlögl, 2019. "Regime switching rough Heston model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 538-552, May.
    5. Mustafa Demirel & Gazanfer Unal, 2020. "Applying multivariate-fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    6. Robert J. Elliott & Katsumasa Nishide & Carlton‐James U. Osakwe, 2016. "Heston‐Type Stochastic Volatility with a Markov Switching Regime," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(9), pages 902-919, September.
    7. repec:uts:finphd:41 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond pricing; Term structure; Markov switching regime; CIR model; Stochastic flows; G12; D43; D81; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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