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Quantifying the transmission of European sovereign default risk

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  • Dumitru, Ana-Maria
  • Holden, Thomas

Abstract

We build a non-stationary Hawkes model of sovereign credit risk for seven European countries, and estimate it on CDS data from the run-up to the Greek default. We model a country's credit risk as partly driven by a weighted combination of risks across countries. We find Spain and Portugal are the chief drivers of this component, with Greece's contribution also significant. Greece and Portugal are found to be particularly sensitive to external risk, with a Greek default 35% less likely in our period without shocks elsewhere. Our novel maximum-likelihood procedure permits tractable estimation of high-dimensional Hawkes models with unobserved events.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Holden, Thomas, 2019. "Quantifying the transmission of European sovereign default risk," EconStor Preprints 193632, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:193632
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/193632/1/CDSEurozonePaper.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ge, S., 2020. "A Revisit to Sovereign Risk Contagion in Eurozone with Mutual Exciting Regime-Switching Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20114, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign CDS spreads; credit risk; multivariate self-exciting point process; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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