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Rational Groupthink

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  • Matan Harel
  • Elchanan Mossel
  • Philipp Strack
  • Omer Tamuz

Abstract

We study how long-lived rational agents learn from repeatedly observing a private signal and each others' actions. With normal signals, a group of any size learns more slowly than just four agents who directly observe each others' private signals in each period. Similar results apply to general signal structures. We identify rational groupthink---in which agents ignore their private signals and choose the same action for long periods of time---as the cause of this failure of information aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2014. "Rational Groupthink," Papers 1412.7172, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1412.7172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wanying Huang & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Learning in Repeated Interactions on Networks," Papers 2112.14265, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    3. Parker, Owen N. & Mui, Rachel & Bhawe, Nachiket & Semadeni, Matthew, 2022. "Insight or ignorance: How collaborative history in a workgroup fits with project type to shape performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 154-167.
    4. Keppo, Jussi & Satopää, Ville A., 2024. "Bayesian herd detection for dynamic data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301.

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