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Optimal Electoral Timing: Exercise Wisely and You May Live Longer -super-1

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  • Jussi Keppo
  • Lones Smith
  • Dmitry Davydov

Abstract

The timing of elections is flexible in many countries. We study this optimization by first creating a Bayesian learning model of a mean-reverting political support process. We then explore optimal electoral timing, modelling it as a renewable American option with interacting waiting and stopping values. Inter alia, we show that the expected longevity is a convex, then concave, function of the support. Finally, we calibrate our model to the post-1945 Labour-Tory U.K. rivalry. Our story quite well explains when the elections were called. We also show that election options approximately double the expected time in power in the current streak. Copyright 2008, Wiley-Blackwell.

Suggested Citation

  • Jussi Keppo & Lones Smith & Dmitry Davydov, 2008. "Optimal Electoral Timing: Exercise Wisely and You May Live Longer -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 597-628.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:2:p:597-628
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00493.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Benedikt V. Meylahn & Arnoud V. den Boer & Michel Mandjes, 2023. "Trusting: Alone and together," Papers 2303.01921, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Rational Groupthink," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 621-668.
      • Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2014. "Rational Groupthink," Papers 1412.7172, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    3. Michael Jong Kim, 2020. "Variance Regularization in Sequential Bayesian Optimization," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 966-992, August.
    4. Gersbach, Hans & Jackson, Matthew O. & Tejada, Oriol, 2020. "The Optimal Length of Political Terms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Keppo, Jussi & Satopää, Ville A., 2024. "Bayesian herd detection for dynamic data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301.
    6. Dimitri Migrow, 2022. "Strategic Observational Learning," Papers 2212.09889, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.

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