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Information Percolation

Author

Listed:
  • Darrell Duffie
  • Gaston Giroux
  • Gustavo Manso

Abstract

We study the "percolation" of information of common interest through a large market as agents encounter and reveal information to each other over time. We provide an explicit solution for the dynamics of the cross-sectional distribution of posterior beliefs. We also show that convergence of the cross-sectional distribution of beliefs to a common posterior is exponential and that the rate of convergence does not depend on the size of the groups of agents that meet. The rate of convergence is merely the mean rate at which an individual agent is matched. (JEL D83)

Suggested Citation

  • Darrell Duffie & Gaston Giroux & Gustavo Manso, 2010. "Information Percolation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 100-111, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:100-111
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.2.1.100
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    Cited by:

    1. Duffie, Darrell & Malamud, Semyon & Manso, Gustavo, 2014. "Information percolation in segmented markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1-32.
    2. Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Rational Groupthink," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 621-668.
      • Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2014. "Rational Groupthink," Papers 1412.7172, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    4. Semih Üslü, 2019. "Pricing and Liquidity in Decentralized Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 2079-2140, November.
    5. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2281-2328, November.
    6. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2018. "Information diffusion in networks with the Bayesian Peer Influence heuristic," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 262-270.
    7. Alain B'elanger & Gaston Giroux, 2012. "Information Percolation: Some General Cases with an Application to Econophysics," Papers 1202.5251, arXiv.org.
    8. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2018. "Information diffusion in networks with the Bayesian Peer Influence heuristic," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86554, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Attanasi, Giuseppe & Centorrino, Samuele & Moscati, Ivan, 2016. "Over-the-counter markets vs. double auctions: A comparative experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 22-35.
    10. Chague, Fernando & De-Losso, Rodrigo & De Genaro, Alan & Giovannetti, Bruno, 2017. "Well-connected short-sellers pay lower loan fees: A market-wide analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 646-670.
    11. Rosenthal, Dale W.R. & Thomas, Nordia Diana Marie, 2012. "Transact taxes in a price maker/taker market," MPRA Paper 40556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Malamud, Semyon & Manso, Gustavo, 2015. "Reprint of: Information percolation in segmented markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 838-869.
    13. Choi, Michael, 2018. "Imperfect information transmission and adverse selection in asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 619-649.
    14. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    15. Robert Shimer & Ivan Werning, 2019. "Efficiency and information transmission in bilateral trading," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 154-176, July.
    16. Zurita, Carlos A., 2022. "Is The Gravity Model a Power Law?: Evidence from Colombia," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Bulusu, Narayan, 2024. "Disentangling the supply and announcement effects of open market operations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Keppo, Jussi & Satopää, Ville A., 2024. "Bayesian herd detection for dynamic data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301.
    19. Hu, May & Park, Jason & Chen, Jane & Verhoevenc, Peter, 2022. "Cross-market informed trading in the CDS and option markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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