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On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

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  • Jean-Francois Mercure
  • Pablo Salas

Abstract

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given.

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  • Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas, 2012. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Papers 1209.0708, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1209.0708
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    2. Hector Pollitt & Karsten Neuhoff & Xinru Lin, 2020. "The impact of implementing a consumption charge on carbon-intensive materials in Europe," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(S1), pages 74-89, April.
    3. Paul Lehmann & Jos Sijm & Erik Gawel & Sebastian Strunz & Unnada Chewpreecha & Jean-Francois Mercure & Hector Pollitt, 2019. "Addressing multiple externalities from electricity generation: a case for EU renewable energy policy beyond 2020?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(2), pages 255-283, April.
    4. Gregor Semieniuk & Philip B. Holden & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Hector Pollitt & Katharine Jobson & Pim Vercoulen & Unnada Chewpreecha & Neil R. Edwards & Jorge E. Viñuales, 2022. "Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 532-538, June.
    5. Kästel, Peter & Gilroy-Scott, Bryce, 2015. "Economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers—LCOE & self-consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 718-729.
    6. Paim, Maria-Augusta & Dalmarco, Arthur R. & Yang, Chung-Han & Salas, Pablo & Lindner, Sören & Mercure, Jean-Francois & de Andrade Guerra, José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório & Derani, Cristiane & Bruce , 2019. "Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 393-401.
    7. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    8. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Ball-Burack, Ari & Salas, Pablo & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2022. "Great power, great responsibility: Assessing power sector policy for the UK’s net zero target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Hafner, Sarah & Anger-Kraavi, Annela & Monasterolo, Irene & Jones, Aled, 2020. "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    11. Roberto Ivo da Rocha Lima Filho & Thereza Cristina Nogueira de Aquino & Adriano Marçal Nogueira Neto, 2021. "Fuel price control in Brazil: environmental impacts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 9811-9826, July.
    12. J.-F. Mercure & A. Lam & S. Billington & H. Pollitt, 2018. "Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 109-129, November.

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