IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v12y2022i6d10.1038_s41558-022-01356-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Semieniuk

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst
    SOAS University of London
    University of Sussex)

  • Philip B. Holden

    (The Open University)

  • Jean-Francois Mercure

    (University of Exeter
    University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Pablo Salas

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL))

  • Hector Pollitt

    (University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Katharine Jobson

    (SOAS University of London
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Pim Vercoulen

    (Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Unnada Chewpreecha

    (Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Neil R. Edwards

    (The Open University
    University of Cambridge)

  • Jorge E. Viñuales

    (University of Cambridge
    Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali (LUISS))

Abstract

The distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We calculate that global stranded assets as present value of future lost profits in the upstream oil and gas sector exceed US$1 trillion under plausible changes in expectations about the effects of climate policy. We trace the equity risk ownership from 43,439 oil and gas production assets through a global equity network of 1.8 million companies to their ultimate owners. Most of the market risk falls on private investors, overwhelmingly in OECD countries, including substantial exposure through pension funds and financial markets. The ownership distribution reveals an international net transfer of more than 15% of global stranded asset risk to OECD-based investors. Rich country stakeholders therefore have a major stake in how the transition in oil and gas production is managed, as ongoing supporters of the fossil-fuel economy and potentially exposed owners of stranded assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Semieniuk & Philip B. Holden & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Hector Pollitt & Katharine Jobson & Pim Vercoulen & Unnada Chewpreecha & Neil R. Edwards & Jorge E. Viñuales, 2022. "Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 532-538, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01356-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01356-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2012. "An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 322-336.
    2. Battiston Stefano & Caldarelli Guido & D’Errico Marco & Gurciullo Stefano, 2016. "Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(3-4), pages 117-138, December.
    3. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2013. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 469-483.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weth, Mark A. & Baltzer, Markus & Bertram, Christoph & Hilaire, Jérôme & Johnston, Craig, 2024. "The scenario-based equity price impact induced by greenhouse gas emissions," Discussion Papers 30/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Angelika von Dulong, 2023. "Concentration of asset owners exposed to power sector stranded assets may trigger climate policy resistance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Yannic Rehm & Lucas Chancel, 2022. "Measuring the Carbon Content of Wealth Evidence from France and Germany," Working Papers halshs-03828939, HAL.
    4. Anton Pichler, 2024. "Transition dynamics of electricity asset-owning firms," Papers 2412.11597, arXiv.org.
    5. Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis, 2024. "A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Yannic Rehm & Lucas Chancel, 2022. "Measuring the Carbon Content of Wealth Evidence from France and Germany," PSE Working Papers halshs-03828939, HAL.
    7. Yannic Rehm & Lucas Chancel, 2022. "Measuring the Carbon Content of Wealth Evidence from France and Germany," World Inequality Lab Working Papers halshs-03828939, HAL.
    8. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2023. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Weimann, Lukas & Dubbink, Guus & van der Ham, Louis & Gazzani, Matteo, 2023. "A thermodynamic-based mixed-integer linear model of post-combustion carbon capture for reliable use in energy system optimisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    10. J. Rickman & M. Falkenberg & S. Kothari & F. Larosa & M. Grubb & N. Ameli, 2024. "The challenge of phasing-out fossil fuel finance in the banking sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Gaies, Brahim & Hemrit, Wael & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2024. "Twenty-year tango: Exploring the reciprocal influence of macro-financial instability and climate risks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 717-731.
    12. Tol, Richard S.J., 2023. "The fiscal implications of stringent climate policy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 495-504.
    13. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," Working Paper Series 2757, European Central Bank.
    14. Golka, Philipp, 2024. "Assets and infrastructures," SocArXiv rbqm9, Center for Open Science.
    15. Hao Dong & Tao Li, 2023. "Climate Economics and Finance: A Literature Review," Climate Economics and Finance, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 29-45, November.
    16. Marinkovic, Catalina & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2023. "Is Energy Planning Consistent with Climate Goals? Assessing Future Emissions from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13143, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Mehling, M. A., 2023. "Supply-Side Crediting to Manage Climate Policy Spillover Effects," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2345, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Patrick Moriarty & Damon Honnery, 2022. "Renewable Energy and Energy Reductions or Solar Geoengineering for Climate Change Mitigation?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Boly, Mohamed & Combes, Jean-Louis & Combes Motel, Pascale, 2023. "Does environment pay for politicians?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Ma, Dandan & Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhao, Wan-Li & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2024. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change news on China's financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    21. Giorgio Calcagnini & Germana Giombini & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, 2024. "Bank Lending Policies and Green Transition," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_16.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    22. Majid Mirza & Truzaar Dordi & Pedro Alguindigue & Ryan Johnson & Olaf Weber, 2023. "Sustainability in Private Capital Investing: A Systematic Literature Review," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(1), pages 119-119, July.
    23. Richard Bärnthaler & Andreas Novy & Lea Arzberger & Astrid Krisch & Hans Volmary, 2024. "The power to transform structures: power complexes and the challenges for realising a wellbeing economy," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    24. Bergman-Fonte, Clarissa & Nascimento da Silva, Gabriela & Império, Mariana & Draeger, Rebecca & Coutinho, Letícia & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2023. "Repurposing, co-processing and greenhouse gas mitigation – The Brazilian refining sector under deep decarbonization scenarios: A case study using integrated assessment modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    2. Mercure, J.-F. & Pollitt, H. & Chewpreecha, U. & Salas, P. & Foley, A.M. & Holden, P.B. & Edwards, N.R., 2014. "The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 686-700.
    3. Kästel, Peter & Gilroy-Scott, Bryce, 2015. "Economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers—LCOE & self-consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 718-729.
    4. Paul Lehmann & Jos Sijm & Erik Gawel & Sebastian Strunz & Unnada Chewpreecha & Jean-Francois Mercure & Hector Pollitt, 2019. "Addressing multiple externalities from electricity generation: a case for EU renewable energy policy beyond 2020?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(2), pages 255-283, April.
    5. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Hector Pollitt & Karsten Neuhoff & Xinru Lin, 2020. "The impact of implementing a consumption charge on carbon-intensive materials in Europe," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(S1), pages 74-89, April.
    7. J.-F. Mercure & A. Lam & S. Billington & H. Pollitt, 2018. "Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 109-129, November.
    8. Paim, Maria-Augusta & Dalmarco, Arthur R. & Yang, Chung-Han & Salas, Pablo & Lindner, Sören & Mercure, Jean-Francois & de Andrade Guerra, José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório & Derani, Cristiane & Bruce , 2019. "Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 393-401.
    9. Kamjoo, Azadeh & Maheri, Alireza & Putrus, Ghanim A., 2014. "Chance constrained programming using non-Gaussian joint distribution function in design of standalone hybrid renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-688.
    10. Roncoroni, Alan & Battiston, Stefano & D’Errico, Marco & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "Interconnected banks and systemically important exposures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    12. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    13. Chiara Perillo & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Real implications of Quantitative Easing in the euro area: a complex-network perspective," Papers 2004.09418, arXiv.org.
    14. Castellini, Marta & Menoncin, Francesco & Moretto, Michele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Photovoltaic Smart Grids in the prosumers investment decisions: a real option model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Poledna, Sebastian & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Caccioli, Fabio & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    17. Bertolini, Marina & D’Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2016. "Investing in Photovoltaics: Timing, Plant Sizing and Smart Grids Flexibility," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 244540, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    18. Andrea Gurgone & Giulia Iori, 2022. "Macroprudential capital buffers in heterogeneous banking networks: insights from an ABM with liquidity crises," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1399-1445, October.
    19. Roberto Ivo da Rocha Lima Filho & Thereza Cristina Nogueira de Aquino & Adriano Marçal Nogueira Neto, 2021. "Fuel price control in Brazil: environmental impacts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 9811-9826, July.
    20. Abad, Jorge & D'Errico, Marco & Killeen, Neill & Luz, Vera & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Portes, Richard & Urbano, Teresa, 2017. "Mapping the interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities," ESRB Working Paper Series 40, European Systemic Risk Board.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01356-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.