IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v50y2012icp8-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales

Author

Listed:
  • Grubler, Arnulf

Abstract

This short essay first reviews the pioneers of energy transition research both in terms of data as well as theories. Three major insights that have emerged from this nascent research fields are summarized highlighting the importance of energy end-use and services, the lengthy process of transitions, as well as the patterns that characterize successful scale up of technologies and industries that drive historical energy transitions. The essay concludes with cautionary notes also derived from historical experience. In order to trigger a next energy transition policies and innovation efforts need to be persistent and continuous, aligned, as well as balanced. It is argued that current policy frameworks in place invariably do not meet these criteria and need to change in order to successfully trigger a next energy transition towards sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Grubler, Arnulf, 2012. "Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 8-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:8-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.070
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512002054
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.070?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert U. Ayres & Benjamin Warr, 2009. "The Economic Growth Engine," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13324.
    2. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 347-372, June.
    3. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    6. Ayres, Robert U & Ayres, Leslie W & Warr, Benjamin, 2003. "Exergy, power and work in the US economy, 1900–1998," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 219-273.
    7. Roger Fouquet & Peter J. G. Pearson, 1998. "A Thousand Years of Energy Use in the United Kingdom," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-41.
    8. Warr, B.S. & Ayres, R.U., 2010. "Evidence of causality between the quantity and quality of energy consumption and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1688-1693.
    9. René Kemp, 2010. "The Dutch energy transition approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 291-316, August.
    10. Roger Fouquet, 2011. "Divergences in Long-Run Trends in the Prices of Energy and Energy Services," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 196-218, Summer.
    11. Pugach, Noel H., 1971. "Standard Oil and Petroleum Development in Early Republican China," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 452-473, January.
    12. Victor,David G., 2011. "Global Warming Gridlock," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521865012, September.
    13. Grubler, Arnulf, 2010. "The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5174-5188, September.
    14. Roger Fouquet, 2008. "Heat, Power and Light," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4061.
    15. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521459556.
    16. Koomey, Jonathan & Hultman, Nathan E., 2007. "A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5630-5642, November.
    17. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
    18. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    19. Bashmakov, Igor, 2007. "Three laws of energy transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3583-3594, July.
    20. Charlie Wilson & Arnulf Grubler, 2011. "Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 165-184, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    2. Fouquet, Roger, 2012. "The demand for environmental quality in driving transitions to low-polluting energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 138-149.
    3. Charlie Wilson & Arnulf Grubler, 2011. "Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 165-184, August.
    4. Ravshonbek Otojanov & Roger Fouquet & Brigitte Granville, 2023. "Factor prices and induced technical change in the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 599-623, May.
    5. F. Knobloch & J. -F. Mercure, 2016. "The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents," Papers 1603.06888, arXiv.org.
    6. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2019. "Modelling the relationship between energy intensity and GDP for European countries: An historical perspective (1800–2000)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 114-134.
    7. Knobloch, Florian & Pollitt, Hector & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Lewney, Richard & Huijbregts, Mark A.J. & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2021. "FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    9. George A. Gonzalez, 2016. "Transforming Energy: Solving Climate Change with Technology Policy . New York : Cambridge University Press . 360 pages. ISBN 9781107614970, $29.99 paperback. Anthony Patt , 2015 ," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 33(1), pages 111-113, January.
    10. Paolo Malanima, 2020. "The limiting factor: energy, growth, and divergence, 1820–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 486-512, May.
    11. Fouquet, Roger, 2016. "Lessons from energy history for climate policy: technological change, demand and economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. David I. Stern, 2010. "The Role of Energy in Economic Growth," CCEP Working Papers 0310, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Malanima, Paolo, 2021. "Energy, productivity and structural growth. The last two centuries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 54-65.
    14. Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
    15. Wilson, Charlie, 2012. "Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 81-94.
    16. Foxon, Timothy J. & Pearson, Peter J.G. & Arapostathis, Stathis & Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna & Thornton, Judith, 2013. "Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 146-158.
    17. Serrenho, André Cabrera & Warr, Benjamin & Sousa, Tânia & Ayres, Robert U. & Domingos, Tiago, 2016. "Structure and dynamics of useful work along the agriculture-industry-services transition: Portugal from 1856 to 2009," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-21.
    18. Moradi, Afsaneh & Vagnoni, Emidia, 2018. "A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-243.
    19. Fouquet, Roger, 2012. "Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-71.
    20. Michael Grubb & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Rutger-Jan Lange & Ida Sognnaes, 2018. "Systems Innovation, Inertia and Pliability: A mathematical exploration with implications for climate change abatement," Working Papers EPRG 1808, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:8-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.