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Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C

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  • J.-F. Mercure

    (Radboud University
    University of Cambridge
    Cambridge Econometrics Ltd)

  • A. Lam

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Macau)

  • S. Billington

    (Cambridge Econometrics Ltd)

  • H. Pollitt

    (Cambridge Econometrics Ltd)

Abstract

Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2 ∘C. Representations of technology evolution in current integrated assessment models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT: transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2 ∘C target of the Paris Agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • J.-F. Mercure & A. Lam & S. Billington & H. Pollitt, 2018. "Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 109-129, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2262-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2262-7
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    2. Nordin, Ida & Elofsson, Katarina & Jansson, Torbjörn, 2024. "Cost-effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: Reducing fuel consumption or replacing fossil fuels with biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Hafner, Sarah & Anger-Kraavi, Annela & Monasterolo, Irene & Jones, Aled, 2020. "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Alexandri, Eva & Antón, José-Ignacio & Lewney, Richard, 2024. "The impact of climate change mitigation policies on European labour markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K. R, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Mercure, J.-F. & Paim, M.A. & Bocquillon, P. & Lindner, S. & Salas, P. & Martinelli, P. & Berchin, I.I. & de Andrade Guerra, J.B.S.O & Derani, C. & de Albuquerque Junior, C.L. & Ribeiro, J.M.P. & Knob, 2019. "System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 230-243.
    8. Walter, Antonia & Held, Maximilian & Pareschi, Giacomo & Pengg, Hermann & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "Decarbonizing the European Automobile Fleet: Impacts of 1.5 °C-compliant Climate Policies in Germany and Norway," FCN Working Papers 18/2020, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Paul Wolfram & Qingshi Tu & Niko Heeren & Stefan Pauliuk & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Material efficiency and climate change mitigation of passenger vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 494-510, April.

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