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Balance-of-payments constrained growth, structural change, and the Thai economy

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  • Nat Tharnpanich
  • John McCombie

Abstract

This paper tests the balance-of-payments constrained growth model using Thailand as a case study. The study explicitly considers the potential existence of a structural break when estimating the model. On balance, it is found that Thailand's long-run economic growth over the period 1962-2009 is balance-of-payments constrained. Besides the positive effect of export growth, changes in the terms of trade also played a role, but had an adverse effect on the growth performance of Thailand. Thailand's economic growth declined following the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and this study reveals that the root cause of this disappointing performance lay in the dramatic decline in the world income elasticity of demand for its manufacturing exports. This is likely to be the result of an adverse structural change within the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Nat Tharnpanich & John McCombie, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth, structural change, and the Thai economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 569-598.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:35:y:2013:i:4:p:569-598
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477350404
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Matheus Silva Paiva & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos, 2019. "The role of intermediate inputs in a multisectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of Mexico," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Özer, Mustafa & Malovic, Marko, 2020. "Ball and chain effect: Is Turkey’s growth rate constrained by current account deficit?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    3. Bruno Jetin & Ozan Ekin Kurt, 2016. "Functional income distribution and growth in Thailand: A post Keynesian econometric analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 334-360, July.
    4. Carlos A. Ibarra & Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Structural change, the real exchange rate and the balance of payments in Mexico, 1960–2012," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 507-539.
    5. Guilherme Riccioppo Magacho, 2017. "Structural change and economic growth: Advances and limitations of Kaldorian growth models," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(280), pages 35-57.
    6. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    7. F.N. Chimphamba & M.K. Wilson, 2022. "The balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for Malawi: Evidence from the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    8. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    9. Mohammed Al- Mahish, 2017. "Does Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model Hold in Saudi Arabia?," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Basil Oberholzer, 2023. "Green Growth and the Balance‐of‐payments Constraint," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 804-840, July.
    11. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Anaclara Martinis & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Varieties of middle-income trap: heterogeneous trajectories and common determinants," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-16, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    12. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Sabeen & Masood, Sameen, 2015. "The energy-growth nexus in Thailand: Does trade openness boost up energy consumption?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 265-274.
    13. Bhanupong Nidhiprabha, 2016. "Impacts of Quantitative Monetary Easing Policy in the United States and Japan on the Thai Economy," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 80-102, March.
    14. Guilherme R. Magacho & John Mccombie, 2016. "Impacts Of Developing Countries Growth On Natural Resource Exporters: A Bop Constrained Growth Model," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 097, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    16. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.

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