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The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature interested in the new factors that may determine fertility behaviors. Many studies underlay that environmental concerns have a direct effect on households' fertility decisions. We present a dynamic model that explicitly examines this interplay, considering whether the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on household's preferences reduces the number of children, as also stressed by a recent literature. The dynamics can be described by an inversely Ushaped relationship between fertility and environmental indicators reflecting the impact of economic production, such as the carbon intensity, as we illustrate using data on US States. The dynamics also explain that regions with lower carbon intensity are those with lower fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Melindi-Ghidi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2023. "The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns," AMSE Working Papers 2324, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lockwood, Ben & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J., 2022. "Are Environmental Concerns Deterring People from Having Children?," IZA Discussion Papers 15620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Simone Marsiglio, 2017. "A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility and environmental concern," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(3), pages 263-282, July.
    3. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; Environmental concerns; Quantity-quality trade-off; Transitional dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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