Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes

Background: For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the developing world’s population will soon be post-transitional - what will happen then? This paper attempts to outline where answers to this question might be found. It suggests that a valuable way to organise the study of these issues is the concept of the demographic regime. Objective: The aim of the paper is to encourage discussion on the nature of post-transitional demographic regimes around the world, especially in the developing world. The style of the reflection is that of a speculative essay - a Denkstűck or ballon d’essai. Methods: In addition to a discussion of the concept of a demographic regime, the paper looks at three possible sources of information on the determinants of post-transitional regimes in the developing world: 1) the nature of the transition itself, 2) lessons drawn from pre-transitional regimes, and 3) demographic trends in Europe and other developed countries, some which have been post-transitional for several decades. Conclusions: The paper concludes with a set of suggestions for future research on the topic.