IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbecw/7153.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning, Forgetting, and Sales

Author

Listed:
  • Villas-Boas, Sofia Berto
  • Villas-Boas, J. Miguel

Abstract

Sellers of almost any product or service rarely keep their prices constant through time, and frequently offer price discounts or sales. This paper investigates an explanation of sales as a way for uninformed consumers to be willing to experience the product, and learn about its fit, and where informed consumers may forget about (or change) their preferences. We investigate the role of the rate of forgetting on the timing between sales, and of the rate of learning and menu costs on the length of a sale. We also investigate the effect of a seller carrying multiple products on the pattern of sales. Using price series from supermarket categories, and given the assumed simplified preference structure, we obtain empirical estimates of the rates of learning and forgetting, and of the other model parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Villas-Boas, Sofia Berto & Villas-Boas, J. Miguel, 2006. "Learning, Forgetting, and Sales," CUDARE Working Papers 7153, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:7153
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/7153/files/wp061020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.7153?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 1993. "Predicting Advertising Pulsing Policies in an Oligopoly: A Model and Empirical Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(1), pages 88-102.
    2. Dmitri Kuksov, 2004. "Buyer Search Costs and Endogenous Product Design," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 490-499, May.
    3. Ying Zhao, 2006. "Price Dispersion in the Grocery Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1175-1192, May.
    4. Lazear, Edward P, 1986. "Retail Pricing and Clearance Sales," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 14-32, March.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris & Bruno Jullien, 1991. "Optimal Learning by Experimentation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 621-654.
    6. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1988. "A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, II: Price Competition, Kinked Demand Curves, and Edgeworth Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 571-599, May.
    7. Green, Edward J & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 87-100, January.
    8. Shilony, Yuval, 1977. "Mixed pricing in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 373-388, April.
    9. Levy, Daniel & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu & Venable, Robert, 1997. "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: Direct Evidence from Large U.S. Supermarket Chains," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 112(3), pages 791-824.
    10. Villas-Boas, Sofia B., 2006. "Vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers: inference with limited data," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt0z26d2v9, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Jagmohan S. Raju & V. Srinivasan & Rajiv Lal, 1990. "The Effects of Brand Loyalty on Competitive Price Promotional Strategies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 276-304, March.
    12. John W. Keon, 1980. "The Bargain Value Model and a Comparison of Managerial Implications with the Linear Learning Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(11), pages 1117-1130, November.
    13. Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2008. "Learning, Forgetting, and Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1951-1960, November.
    14. Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2008. "Learning, Forgetting, and Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1951-1960, November.
    15. Varian, Hal R, 1980. "A Model of Sales," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 651-659, September.
    16. Ram C. Rao & Ramesh V. Arjunji & B. P. S. Murthi, 1995. "Game Theory and Empirical Generalizations Concerning Competitive Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages 89-100.
    17. Rajiv Lal & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 1998. "Price Promotions and Trade Deals with Multiproduct Retailers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(7), pages 935-949, July.
    18. repec:bla:jemstr:v:4:y:1995:i:1:p:85-107:a is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Villas-Boas, Sofia B., 2007. "Vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers: inference with limited data," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6gz1t778, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    20. Sofia Berto Villas-Boas, 2007. "Vertical Relationships between Manufacturers and Retailers: Inference with Limited Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 625-652.
    21. Ram C. Rao, 1991. "Pricing and Promotions in Asymmetric Duopolies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 131-144.
    22. Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 1988. "Competitive Promotional Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 427-449, October.
    23. Fred M. Feinberg, 2001. "On Continuous-Time Optimal Advertising Under S-Shaped Response," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(11), pages 1476-1487, November.
    24. Pashigian, B Peter, 1988. "Demand Uncertainty and Sales: A Study of Fashion and Markdown Pricin g," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 936-953, December.
    25. Doyle, Chris, 1986. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination, Uncertainty and Introductory Offers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(380a), pages 71-82, Supplemen.
    26. Anderson, Eric T. & Kumar, Nanda & Rajiv, Surendra, 2004. "A comment on: "Revisiting dynamic duopoly with consumer switching costs"," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 177-186, May.
    27. Eric T. Anderson & Duncan I. Simester, 1998. "The Role of Sale Signs," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 139-155.
    28. John Conlisk & Eitan Gerstner & Joel Sobel, 1984. "Cyclic Pricing by a Durable Goods Monopolist," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 489-505.
    29. Villas-Boas, J Miguel, 1995. "Models of Competitive Price Promotions: Some Empirical Evidence from the Coffee and Saltine Crackers Markets," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 85-107, Spring.
    30. Vijay Mahajan & Eitan Muller, 1986. "Advertising Pulsing Policies for Generating Awareness for New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 89-106.
    31. Padilla A. Jorge, 1995. "Revisiting Dynamic Duopoly with Consumer Switching Costs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 520-530, December.
    32. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 2004. "Monopoly Pricing of Experience Goods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1463R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2005.
    33. Rosenthal, Robert W, 1980. "A Model in Which an Increase in the Number of Sellers Leads to a Higher Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1575-1579, September.
    34. Jeuland, Abel P & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 1985. "Dealing-Temporary Price Cuts-by Seller as a Buyer Discrimination Mechanism," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 295-308, July.
    35. Sobel, Joel, 1991. "Durable Goods Monopoly with Entry of New Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1455-1485, September.
    36. Nitin Mehta & Surendra Rajiv & Kannan Srinivasan, 2004. "Role of Forgetting in Memory-Based Choice Decisions: A Structural Model," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 107-140, June.
    37. Vijay Mahajan & Eitan Muller, 1986. "Reply—Reflections on Advertising Pulsing Policies for Generating Awareness for New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 110-111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kai A.Konrad, 2010. "Merger Profitability in Industries with Brand Portfolios and Loyal Customers," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 5-26.
    2. Zhang, Zelin & Dong, Xiaodan & Mantrala, Murali & Zhang, Yihao, 2018. "Optimal depth and timing of price promotions in a vertically differentiated product line," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 215-228.
    3. Maxim Sinitsyn, 2017. "Pricing with Prescheduled Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 999-1014, November.
    4. Guo, Wenhao & Tian, Jin & Li, Minqiang, 2023. "Price-aware enhanced dynamic recommendation based on deep learning," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Jang, Seongsoo & Chung, Jaihak, 2021. "What drives add-on sales in mobile games? The role of inter-price relationship and product popularity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 59-68.
    6. Schumacher, Heiner, 2014. "Incentives through consumer learning about tastes," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 170-177.
    7. P. Février & L. Wilner, 2012. "Do Consumers Correctly Expect Price Reductions? Testing Dynamic Behavior," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2012-03, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    8. Février, Philippe & Wilner, Lionel, 2016. "Do consumers correctly expect price reductions? Testing dynamic behavior," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 25-40.
    9. Villas-Boas, Sofia B & Villas-Boas, J Miguel, 2008. "Learning, Forgetting, and Sales," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt01v2r04t, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    10. Andrés Elberg & Pedro M. Gardete & Rosario Macera & Carlos Noton, 2019. "Dynamic effects of price promotions: field evidence, consumer search, and supply-side implications," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-58, March.
    11. Matthew Osborne, 2007. "Consumer Learning, Switching Costs, and Heterogeneity: A Structural Examination," EAG Discussions Papers 200710, Department of Justice, Antitrust Division.
    12. Amir Ajorlou & Ali Jadbabaie & Ali Kakhbod, 2018. "Dynamic Pricing in Social Networks: The Word-of-Mouth Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 971-979, February.
    13. Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2008. "Learning, Forgetting, and Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1951-1960, November.
    14. Liang Guo, 2023. "The Mnemonomics of Contractual Screening," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1739-1757, March.
    15. Raphael Thomadsen & Pradeep Bhardwaj, 2011. "Cooperation in Games with Forgetfulness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(2), pages 363-375, February.
    16. Upender Subramanian & Ram C. Rao, 2016. "Leveraging Experienced Consumers to Attract New Consumers: An Equilibrium Analysis of Displaying Deal Sales by Daily Deal Websites," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3555-3575, December.
    17. Richard C. Hanna & Scott D. Swain & Paul D. Berger, 2016. "Optimizing time-limited price promotions," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 77-92, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berck, Peter & Brown, Jennifer & Perloff, Jeffrey M & Villas-Boas, Sofia B., 2007. "Sales: Tests of Theories on Causality and Timing," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2g56n1jk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Villas-Boas, Sofia B & Perloff, Jeff & Berck, Peter & Brown, Jen, 2008. "Sales: Tests of Theories on Causality and Timing," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt0076k5r6, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    3. Berck, Peter & Brown, Jennifer & Perloff, Jeffrey M. & Villas-Boas, Sofia Berto, 2008. "Sales: Tests of theories on causality and timing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1257-1273, November.
    4. Yuxin Chen & Ganesh Iyer & Amit Pazgal, 2010. "Limited Memory, Categorization, and Competition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 650-670, 07-08.
    5. Allender, William J. & Richards, Timothy J., 2012. "Brand Loyalty and Price Promotion Strategies: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 323-342.
    6. Michael R. Baye & John Morgan & Patrick Scholten, 2004. "Temporal Price Dispersion: Evidence from an Online Consumer Electronics Market," Working Papers 2004-04, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    7. Bing Jing, 2007. "Product differentiation under imperfect information: When does offering a lower quality pay?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 35-61, March.
    8. Eric Anderson & Nanda Kumar, 2007. "Price competition with repeat, loyal buyers," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 333-359, December.
    9. Mathur, Sameer & Sinitsyn, Maxim, 2013. "Price promotions in emerging markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 404-416.
    10. Manish Gangwar & Nanda Kumar & Ram C. Rao, 2021. "Pricing Under Dynamic Competition When Loyal Consumers Stockpile," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 569-588, May.
    11. Zoltán BAKUCS & Imre FERTŐ, 2015. "Empirical tests of sale theories: Hungarian milk prices," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(11), pages 511-521.
    12. Raju, Jagmohan S., 1995. "Theoretical models of sales promotions: Contributions, limitations, and a future research agenda," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Rajiv Lal & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 1998. "Price Promotions and Trade Deals with Multiproduct Retailers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(7), pages 935-949, July.
    14. Ganesh Iyer & David Soberman & J. Miguel Villas-Boas, 2005. "The Targeting of Advertising," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 461-476, May.
    15. Kutsal Dogan & Ernan Haruvy & Ram Rao, 2010. "Who should practice price discrimination using rebates in an asymmetric duopoly?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 61-90, March.
    16. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2009. "Milk Retail Sales Patterns in a Transition Economy. The Case of Hungary," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30 - April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 50932, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    18. Maxim Sinitsyn, 2016. "Managing Price Promotions Within a Product Line," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 304-318, March.
    19. Manish Gangwar & Nanda Kumar & Ram C. Rao, 2014. "Consumer Stockpiling and Competitive Promotional Strategies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 94-113, January.
    20. Hao Lan & Tim Lloyd & Wyn Morgan & Paul W. Dobson, 2022. "Are food price promotions predictable? The hazard function of supermarket discounts," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 64-85, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer/Household Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:7153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.