IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The potential local and regional impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand with a focus on tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Leroy de Morel, Laetitia
  • Wittwer, Glyn
  • Gamperle, Dion
  • Leung, Christina

Abstract

Due to the on-going global COVID-19 pandemic, there is a growing concern regarding its potential impacts on economies. With restrictions on entry and movements imposed by most countries, the tourism industry is particularly at risk. In New Zealand, where tourism contributes 5.8 percent to the national GDP and represents 20 percent of national exports, businesses in the tourism industry are already starting to see the effects of the latest travel restrictions imposed by the government. We present a CGE modelling application with a disaggregated tourism sector in our database to explore the potential impacts of COVID-19 on tourism for the local, regional and national New Zealand economies. In this paper, we focus on New Zealand’s major urban areas and tourist destinations in New Zealand, and we use a multi-regional bottom-up computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on the original TERM model (Wittwer 2012, 2017). TERM-NZ is calibrated using Statistics NZ’s 2013 Input-Output tables and updated with the latest National Accounts available. The model database has been extended so that it contains information on 149 industries, 149 commodities and 88 districts. This includes 67 territorial authorities across New Zealand plus, within Auckland, 21 local community boards. It includes a tourism sector that can distinguish between domestic tourism, foreign tourism and foreign students. We also provide an overview of the methodology we used to prepare the TERM-NZ database, focusing on tourism industries and regional detail. We use a 54-sector, 10-region aggregation of the model to simulate the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To this extent, we model three scenarios, each representing a different level of alert defined by the New Zealand government and associated with different degrees of foreign and domestic travel restrictions, including a travel ban, borders closures and confinement.

Suggested Citation

  • Leroy de Morel, Laetitia & Wittwer, Glyn & Gamperle, Dion & Leung, Christina, 2020. "The potential local and regional impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand with a focus on tourism," Conference papers 333207, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333207/files/10025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry Dwyer, 2015. "Computable general equilibrium modelling: an important tool for tourism policy analysis," Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, vol. 21(2), pages 111-126, December.
    2. Glyn Wittwer, 2020. "The 2019-20 Australian Economic Crisis Induced by Bushfires and COVID-19 from the Perspective of Grape and Wine Sectors," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-299, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    4. Marcus Keogh-Brown & Richard Smith & John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels, 2010. "The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(6), pages 543-554, December.
    5. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth & Ray Spurr & Thiep VanHo, 2003. "Tourism's Contribution to a State Economy: A Multi-Regional General Equilibrium Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 431-448, December.
    6. Adams, P.D. & Dixon, P.B., 2001. "The September 11 shock to tourism and the Australian economy from 2001-02 to 2003-04," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pham, Tien Duc & Dwyer, Larry & Su, Jen-Je & Ngo, Tramy, 2021. "COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Niccolò Comerio & Fernanda Strozzi, 2019. "Tourism and its economic impact: A literature review using bibliometric tools," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 109-131, February.
    3. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    4. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    5. Heather Rosoff & Robert Siko & Richard John & William J. Burns, 2013. "Should I stay or should I go? An experimental study of health and economic government policies following a severe biological agent release," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-137, March.
    6. J. Nassios & J.A. Giesecke, 2015. "The Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terrorism in the U.S.: A Reconciliation of CGE and Econometric Approaches," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-256, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Christopher W. Ryan, 2023. "Decreased Respiratory-Related Absenteeism among Preschool Students after Installation of Upper Room Germicidal Ultraviolet Light: Analysis of Newly Discovered Historical Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-11, January.
    8. World Bank, 2020. "China Economic Update, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34264, The World Bank Group.
    9. Mabugu, Ramos E. & Maisonnave, Helene & Henseler, Martin & Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret & Makochekanwa, Albert, 2023. "Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.
    11. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Thomas Ochuodho & Michel Masozera & Bernabas Wolde & Pankaj Lal & Sebastian Dudek & Janaki R.R. Alavalapati, 2017. "Financing the Sustainable Management of Rwanda’s Protected Areas," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0211, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    12. Verikios, George & Sullivan, Maura & Stojanovski, Pane & Giesecke, James & Woo, Gordon, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Conference papers 332033, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Robin L. Dillon & William J. Burns & Richard S. John, 2018. "Insights for Critical Alarm-Based Warning Systems from a Risk Analysis of Commercial Aviation Passenger Screening," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 154-173, September.
    14. Loïc Berger & Nicolas Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Itzhak Gilboa & Lars Peter Hansen & Christopher Jarvis & Massimo Marinacci & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Uncertainty and decision-making during a crisis: How to make policy decisions in the COVID-19 context?," Working Papers 666, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. Adam Rose & Misak Avetisyan & Samrat Chatterjee, 2014. "A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1554-1579, August.
    16. Marcus Roller, 2023. "Estimation of direct net effects of events," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1577-1597, September.
    17. Ahmed, S. Amer & Baris, Enis & Go, Delfin S & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2017. "Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance," Conference papers 332903, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. João-Pedro Ferreira & Pedro N Ramos & Michael L Lahr, 2020. "The rise of the sharing economy: Guesthouse boom and the crowding-out effects of tourism in Lisbon," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 389-403, May.
    19. Muhammad Shafiullah & Luke Emeka Okafor & Usman Khalid, 2019. "Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 274-296, March.
    20. Ghialy Yap, 2010. "Australian domestic tourism demand analysis using panel data static regression," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 2(2), pages 113-127, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.