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A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

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  • Adam Rose
  • Misak Avetisyan
  • Samrat Chatterjee

Abstract

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Rose & Misak Avetisyan & Samrat Chatterjee, 2014. "A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1554-1579, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:34:y:2014:i:8:p:1554-1579
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12187
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rose Adam Z. & Blomberg S. Brock, 2010. "Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Insights from 9/11," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Michael Greenberg & Charles Haas & Anthony Cox & Karen Lowrie & Katherine McComas & Warner North, 2012. "Ten Most Important Accomplishments in Risk Analysis, 1980–2010," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 771-781, May.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Marinos E. Tsigas, 2007. "Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 31-55, March.
    4. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    7. Rose Adam Z. & Oladosu Gbadebo & Lee Bumsoo & Asay Garrett Beeler, 2009. "The Economic Impacts of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 217-244, July.
    8. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    9. Balistreri, Edward J. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Wong, Eina Vivian, 2003. "An estimation of US industry-level capital-labor substitution elasticities: support for Cobb-Douglas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 343-356, December.
    10. Donnelly, William A. & Johnson, Kyle & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Ingersoll, David, 2004. "Revised Armington Elasticities of Substitution for the USITC Model and the Concordance for Constructing a Consistent Set for the GTAP Model," Working Papers 15861, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    11. Adam Rose, 2005. "Analyzing Terrorist Threats to the Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Chapters, in: Harry W. Richardson & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II (ed.), The Economic Impacts of Terrorist Attacks, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fynnwin Prager & Dan Wei & Adam Rose, 2017. "Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 4-19, January.
    2. Shahirari, Siroos & Rashidi, Taha & Dixit, Vinayak & Robson, Edward, 2021. "Assessing economic benefits of transport projects using an integrated transport-CGE approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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