IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332782.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty

Author

Listed:
  • Cruz, Marcio
  • Ahmed, S. Amer

Abstract

Changing population age-structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing both opportunities and challenges. Rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the shares of their population that are of working-age, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and poverty reduction. However, the sensitivity of growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity to these changes is unclear. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect growth and saving and estimates the association between changes in the share of working age population with growth and savings. In addition, the paper examines the implications of changes in age-structure on poverty and shared prosperity. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to boost GDP per capita by more than one percent with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz, Marcio & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2016. "On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty," Conference papers 332782, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332782/files/8289.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    3. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    4. Ricardo Paes de Barros & Sergio Firpo & Roberta Guedes & Phillippe Leite, 2015. "Demographic Changes and Poverty in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0096, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    5. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    6. Birdsall, Nancy & Kelley, Allen C. & Sinding, Steven (ed.), 2003. "Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199261864.
    7. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    8. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    9. Kinugasa, Tomoko & Mason, Andrew, 2007. "Why Countries Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    11. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    12. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    2. Kilic Celik,Sinem & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Subdued Potential Growth : Sources and Remedies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9177, The World Bank.
    3. Sibusiso Mkwananzi & Ololade Julius Baruwa, 2022. "Chasing the Youth Dividend in Nigeria, Malawi and South Africa: What Is the Role of Poverty in Determining the Health and Health Seeking Behaviour of Young Women?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-9, October.
    4. Maliszewska, Maryla & Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Winters, Alan, 2016. "Cashing in the demographic dividend," Conference papers 332794, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cruz, Marcio & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2018. "On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 95-106.
    2. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio, 2016. "Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa," Conference papers 332796, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    4. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(2), pages 1-25, September.
    5. Shekh Farid & Mamata Mostari, 2022. "Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 108-126, June.
    6. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    8. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    9. Wongboonsin, Kua & Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2017. "Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 364-379.
    10. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    11. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    13. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    14. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2018. "Contribution of demography to economic growth," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-64, March.
    15. Eduardo Cavallo & Gabriel Sánchez & Patricio Valenzuela, 2018. "Gone with the wind: Demographic transitions and domestic saving," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 1744-1764, November.
    16. World Bank, 2011. "Uganda - Demography and Economic Growth in Uganda," World Bank Publications - Reports 2811, The World Bank Group.
    17. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2021. "A revisit to effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia," MPRA Paper 110609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Durr-e-Nayab, 2008. "Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 1-26.
    19. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    20. Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited," PGDA Working Papers 9012, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.