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Subdued Potential Growth : Sources and Remedies

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  • Kilic Celik,Sinem
  • Kose,Ayhan
  • Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte

Abstract

Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers.

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  • Kilic Celik,Sinem & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Subdued Potential Growth : Sources and Remedies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9177, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9177
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    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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