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Hunger and Obesity: the “double burden” of malnutrition in a SIMPLE framework

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  • Lopez Barrera, Emiliano

Abstract

This paper aims to shed light on the linkages between the future drivers of the global agriculture and the food system with the overweight and obesity prevalence. The research focuses on developing regions, particularly in the Sub Saharan Africa and LAC, using the Simplified International Model of Prices, Land and Use of the Environment (SIMPLE). SIMPLE is a partial equilibrium model designed to facilitate analysis of the drivers behind the long run supply and demand for food (Baldos and Hertel 2013). This framework has been used in studies related to nutrition outcomes, focusing on undernutrition and has been shown to reproduce broad patterns of change in undernutrition from 1991 onwards (Baldos and Hertel 2014). The food security module in SIMPLE models the full distribution of caloric consumption, determining undernutrition as the portion of the population falling below a critical level of intake. In the current paper, we extend this approach to look at the high end of caloric intake – excess consumption – in order to shed light on future rates of obesity. In doing so we will factor in current estimates of food waste, following the approach recently proposed by the FAO. We repeated their analysis, only now using the new, over-nutrition module, allowing us to predict the future incidence of obesity under alternative scenarios about population, economic growth, agricultural productivity and climate change.

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  • Lopez Barrera, Emiliano, 2018. "Hunger and Obesity: the “double burden” of malnutrition in a SIMPLE framework," Conference papers 330180, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2014. "Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 554-570, October.
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