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Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade

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  • Gervais, Antoine

Abstract

In this paper, I study the impact of uncertainty in the delivery of inputs on international trade patterns. I develop a model of sourcing decisions where risk-averse managers can contract with multiple suppliers in order to decrease the variability of firm profits. Among other results, the model predicts that firms will buy a larger share of their inputs from low price variability suppliers, and that the distribution of input demand across suppliers will be more dispersed in input markets characterized with high price variability. Econometric evidence suggests that the model is consistent with qualitative features of the data.

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  • Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:145-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.09.001
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    7. Juan de Lucio & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena, 2018. "Benefits of forced experimentation on exports," Working Papers 1812, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
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    11. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    12. Tran Manh Ha & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2023. "Economic sanction and global sourcing complexity: A cross‐country analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 1017-1050, April.
    13. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    14. Tasso Adamopoulos & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Trade Risk and Food Security," Working Papers 2024-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
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