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Searching under the Light: The Neglect of Dynamics and Risk in the Analysis of Food Trade Reforms

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  • Tyers, Rod

Abstract

The substantial investment in models of global food markets immediately prior to and during the Uruguay Round of international trade negotiations has been a mixed blessing so far as the prospects for reform are concerned. At worst, results from these models have misled the negotiations, first because they have served the losers from reform better than the gainers and second because they have tended not to address a primary concern lending domestic political support to food market interventions, namely the avoidance of risks borne of dependence on international markets. The paper reviews some errors that have stemmed from the application of "standard" but inappropriate models and examines the implications of extending the standard methodology to include the combination of explicit food price risk with dynamic behaviour and market-insulating policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tyers, Rod, 1992. "Searching under the Light: The Neglect of Dynamics and Risk in the Analysis of Food Trade Reforms," 1992 Occasional Paper Series No. 6 197873, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeo6:197873
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.197873
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318, January.
    2. Valdés, Alberto & Zietz, Joachim A., 1980. "Agricultural protection in OECD countries: its cost to less-developed countries," Research reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Roningen, Vernon O. & Dixit, Praveen M., 1989. "Economic Implications Of Agricultural Policy Reforms In Industrial Market Economies," Staff Reports 278843, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Mark Horridge & David Pearce & Agnes Walker, 1990. "World Agricultural Trade Reform: Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(3), pages 235-248, September.
    6. repec:bla:ecorec:v:66:y:1990:i:194:p:235-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Roningen, Vernon Oley, 1986. "A Static World Policy Simulation (Swopsim) Modeling Framework," Staff Reports 277898, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Jean Mercenier & Jean Waelbroeck, 1985. "The Impact of Protection on Developing Countries: a General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Association Series, in: Karl Jungenfelt & Douglas Hague (ed.), Structural Adjustment in Developed Open Economies, chapter 8, pages 219-245, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Thompson, Robert L., 1981. "A Survey of Recent U.S. Developments in International Agricultural Trade Models," Miscellaneous Publications 319978, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Hertel, Thomas W., 1990. "General Equilibrium Analysis of U.S. Agriculture: What Does It Contribute?," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 42(3), pages 1-7.
    11. Rod Tyers, 1990. "Trade Reform and Price Risk in Domestic and International Food Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 212-229, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Locke, Christopher G. & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2001. "Debt overhangs and international agricultural trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-216, February.
    2. Halmai, Peter & Elekes, Andrea, 2005. "CAP Reform in the Light of the WTO Doha Round Negotiations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24693, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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