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Assessing Local Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agriculture: An Application to the State of Tocantins, Brazil

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  • Guerrero-Escobar, Santiago
  • Juarez-Torres, Miriam
  • Martinez-Cruz, Adan

Abstract

This research develops several indicators for assessing local vulnerability to climate change in the agricultural sector of Tocantins, Brazil, where the Inter-American Development Bank is carrying irrigation investments via the Development Program for the Southwest (PRODOESTE). Vulnerability to climate indicators are constructed from exposure and sensitivity indicators and estimated using panel data on yields and farmers’ profits as a function of climatic variables. Our baseline assessment indicates that those municipalities where PRODOESTE operates present medium to high levels of precipitation and temperature vulnerability, relative to the rest of Tocantins. In particular, temperature vulnerability is higher than precipitation vulnerability. We also find that vulnerability will increase in all municipalities due to climate change and it will be higher in the long-run and in more extreme climate change scenarios. Finally, irrigation is evaluated as a potential adaptation strategy and it is found to reduce climate vulnerability in the long-term, indicating that PRODOESTE’s irrigation investments may be successful at reducing vulnerability due to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrero-Escobar, Santiago & Juarez-Torres, Miriam & Martinez-Cruz, Adan, 2015. "Assessing Local Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agriculture: An Application to the State of Tocantins, Brazil," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211694, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211694
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211694
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    1. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Nonlinear Effects of Weather on Corn Yields," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 391-398.
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    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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