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Optimal Grain Marketing Revisited: A German and Polish Perspective

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  • Loy, Jens-Peter
  • Pieniadz, Agata

Abstract

Increasing grain price volatility over the last year has revived the discussion on optimal marketing strategies. Various models of optimal grain marketing have been proposed and simulated in the literature. In this study an overview on these models is presented and critical aspects are discussed. Optimal strategies are then applied to the wheat market in Germany and Poland. Results indicate that gains from optimal marketing are rather small and uncertain in the real world, indicating that scientific assistance might be of limited importance. However, an understanding of optimization and price generating processes is likely to improve farmers’ decisions, e.g. if farmers have additional (private) information to improve price forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Loy, Jens-Peter & Pieniadz, Agata, 2009. "Optimal Grain Marketing Revisited: A German and Polish Perspective," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51058, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51058
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blakeslee, Leroy & Lone, Todd A, 1995. "Modelling Optimal Grain-Marketing Decisions When Prices Are Generated Autoregressively," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 22(1), pages 87-102.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-8, April.
    4. Berg, Ernst, 1987. "A Sequential Decision Model to Determine Optimal Farm-Level Grain Marketing Policies," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 14(1), pages 91-116.
    5. Paul L. Fackler & Michael J. Livingston, 2002. "Optimal Storage by Crop Producers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 645-659.
    6. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jens‐Peter Loy & Thore Holm & Carsten Steinhagen & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Seasonal Quality Premiums for Wheat: A Case Study for Northern Germany," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 63-75, January.
    2. Holzer, Patrick & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2016. "Messung Des Vermarktungserfolges Bei Marktfruchtbaubetrieben: Wie Groß Sind Die Unterschiede?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244893, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Feil, J.-H. & Anastassiadis, F. & Mußhoff, O. & Schilling, P., 2015. "Analysing Farmers’ Use of Price Hedging Instruments: An Experimental Approach," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 50, March.
    4. Aymeric Ricome & Arnaud Reynaud, 2022. "Marketing contract choices in agriculture: The role of price expectation and price risk management," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 170-186, January.
    5. Potts, Franziska & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2018. "Getreidevermarktung In Norddeutschland," 58th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 12-14, 2018 275863, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

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