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Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment

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  • Kohler, Wilhelm

Abstract

This paper takes a welfare-view on eastern enlargement of the EU, focusing on incumbent countries. Enlargement is decomposed into three elements: Single-market integration on commodity markets, budgetary costs from EU-expenditure policies, and single market- induced migration from new to present member countries. I first use an analytical model to derive a welfare equation that identifies the principle channels for incumbent country welfare gains and losses from enlargement, including product differentiation, capital accumulation, and unemployment due to search-costs. I then propose a method that allows to extend welfare results obtained from a detailed calibrated version of this model for Germany to other incumbent countries. The approach relies on model elasticities extracted from the German model which are then applied to other countries' idiosyncratic "enlargement-shocks". Constructing detailed indices for such country specific "enlargement-shocks", I arrive at characteristic inter-country pattern of enlargement- induced welfare effects for all EU15 countries. Aggregating these across countries reveals enlargement to be beneficial for the union as a whole, although several countries stand to suffer welfare losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohler, Wilhelm, 2004. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment," Discussion Paper Series 26377, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26377
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ben J Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 2, pages 37-83, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. repec:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:2:p:324-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Keuschnigg, 2000. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Part I: A General Treatment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 325-351, December.
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    9. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Arndt & Anselm Mattes & Michael Knogler & Fidelis Lankes & Jarko Fidmuc, 2007. "Die neuen Mitglieder: Motor oder Bremse der europäischen Integration?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(14), pages 03-20, July.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Can International Migration Ever Be Made a Pareto Improvement?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 11, pages 373-393, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Marcel DRACEA, 2008. "The implications of the accession to the European Union upon taxation in Romania," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(36), pages 458-465, may.
    4. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2007:i:007 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tanja Broz, 2011. "Five Years of an Enlarged EU – A Positive Sum Game, Filip Keereman and István Székely, eds., Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2010, pp. 256, ISBN 978-3-642-12515-7," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 13(1), pages 173-182, April.
    6. Lee, Hiro & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Deep integration and its impacts on non-members: EU enlargement and East Asia," MPRA Paper 82286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marius Brülhart & Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig, 2004. "Enlargement and the EU Periphery: The Impact of Changing Market Potential," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 853-875, June.
    8. Schukkink, Martijn & Niemann, Arne, 2012. "Portugal and the EU’s Eastern Enlargement: A logic of identity endorsement," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, July.
    9. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "An evaluation of the EU's Fifth Enlargement With special focus on Bulgaria and Romania," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 361, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Ghosh, Sucharita & Enami, Ali, 2015. "Do refugee-immigrants affect international trade? Evidence from the world's largest refugee case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 291-307.
    11. Harald Badinger & Fritz Breuss, 2011. "The Quantitative Effects of European Post-war Economic Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Glebe, Thilo W., 2009. "Enlargement of the European Union: A movement towards the optimal trade bloc size?," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 1-10.
    13. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2011. "An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-279, February.
    14. Srðan Marinkoviæ & Zenaida Šabotiæ & Dragiæ Bankoviæ, 2018. "EU enlargement: Does economics of regional integration matter?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 881-904.
    15. Fritz Breuss, 2021. "A Simple EU Model in EViews," WIFO Working Papers 638, WIFO.
    16. Fritz Breuss, 2022. "In Search of the "Right" Integration Effects: From Complex to Simple Modeling," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 99-118, December.
    17. Fink, Gerhard, 2009. "Comparative advantage, regional specialization and income distribution: The case of Austria in perspective," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 239-259.

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