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Grenzeffekte in der Marktintegration bei Mais in Ostafrika: Einsichten aus einem semi-parametrischen Regressionsmodell

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  • Ihle, Rico
  • Amikuzuno, Joseph
  • von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan
  • Zorya, Sergiy

Abstract

Diese Arbeit analysiert Faktoren, die Einfluß auf das Ausmaß der inländischen und grenz-übergreifenden Integration der Maismärkte Kenias, Tansanias und Ugandas ausüben. Die Stärke der Reaktion der Preise auf Abweichungen von ihren Langzeitgleichgewichtswerten als Maß der Marktintegration und die Determinanten dieser Reaktion werden für 85 Marktpaare von Januar 2000 bis Oktober 2008 untersucht. Zu diesem Zweck wird ein semi-parametrisches partiell-lineares Regressionsmodell genutzt, das imstande ist, den Einfluß der Marktentfernung, der sich als nichtlinear herausstellt, adäquat zu modellieren. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung sind kohärent mit der ökonomischen Theorie und von politischem Interesse. Ein Grenzeffekt wird identifiziert, der in dem Sinne heterogen ist, daß er nur für die tansanische, jedoch nicht für die ugandische Grenze festgestellt werden kann. Der tansanische Binnenhandel weißt einen stark negativen Effekt auf, der sich jedoch statistisch nicht vom Grenzeffekt des Landes unterscheidet. Weiterhin wird ein stark positiver Effekt für Nairobi gefunden, der im Einklang mit der Größe und wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung der Stadt im ostafrikanischen Raum steht.

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  • Ihle, Rico & Amikuzuno, Joseph & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Zorya, Sergiy, 2009. "Grenzeffekte in der Marktintegration bei Mais in Ostafrika: Einsichten aus einem semi-parametrischen Regressionsmodell," 49th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 30-October 2, 2009 53272, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gaae09:53272
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.53272
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