IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaa155/245172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?

Author

Listed:
  • Meyers, William H.
  • Schroeder, Kateryna G.

Abstract

The paper provides an overview of the factors contributing to the decline in agricultural commodity prices and prospects to 2025 with a particular focus on supply, demand and policy factors. Agricultural and other commodity markets continue to be depressed, causing concern among farmers and their organizations as well as among policy makers concerned about the well-being of farmers. Factors contributing to these market changes are the excellent crops in recent years and growing stocks, the massive decline in petroleum prices that reduce production cost and slow biofuel demand growth, slowing economic growth in major importing countries like China, and changing exchange rate dynamics. We will use the FAPRI outlook update from August 2016 to assess the factors that are driving those results. Then we will offer commentary on what changes in market conditions or policies could alter the projected outcomes. Recent developments in trade disputes and regional trade agreements will also be assessed based on recent studies of these developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyers, William H. & Schroeder, Kateryna G., 2016. "Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?," 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine 245172, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa155:245172
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.245172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/245172/files/Kyiv%20paper%20EAAE%20conference%20Meyers%20and%20Schroeder%20final%20for%20AE%20search.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.245172?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dillen, Koen, 2015. "The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Meyers, William H. & Westhoff, Patrick & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2010. "The FAPRI Global Modeling System and Outlook Process," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31534, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Natalia Karlova & Vasily Uzun & Natalia Shagaida & Renata Yanbykh, 2015. "Russian Agriculture: the impact of sanctions," Published Papers 212, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    4. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banse, Martin & Duric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Laquai, Verena, 2019. "From the Russian food import ban to free trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok - will farmers benefit?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 20-31.
    2. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2021. "Investigating Alternative Poultry Trade Policies in the Context of African Countries: Evidence from Ghana," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. José M. Rueda-Cantuche & Tamas Revesz & Antonio F. Amores & Agustín Velázquez & Marian Mraz & Emanuele Ferrari & Alfredo J. Mainar-Causapé & Letizia Montinari & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Improving the European input–output database for global trade analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Xi He & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Dermot Hayes & Minghao Li & Wendong Zhang, 2022. "China's corn and biofuel policies and agricultural trade: Projections from an international agricultural commodity market model," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 970-989, October.
    6. Bayramov, Vugar & Rustamli, Nabi & Abbas, Gulnara, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 92-109.
    7. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Lenka Rumankova & Elena Kuzmenko & Irena Benesova & Lubos Smutka, 2022. "Selected EU Countries Crop Trade Competitiveness from the Perspective of the Czech Republic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, January.
    9. Peter Maniloff, 2013. "Ethanol and Energy Security," Working Papers 2013-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    10. Gerasymchuk Nataliia, 2017. "Development of methodological concept of resource-saving development of agro-industrial complex," Technology audit and production reserves, 4(36) 2017, Socionet;Technology audit and production reserves, vol. 4(5(36)), pages 26-31.
    11. Knutson, Ronald D. & Westhoff, Patrick C. & Sherwell, Pablo, 2010. "Trade Liberalizing Impacts of NAFTA in Sugar: Global Implications," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16.
    12. Rodnyansky, Alexander & Goetz, Daniel, 2020. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Quality Adjustments," CEPR Discussion Papers 15248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Baležentis, Tomas & Sun, Kai, 2020. "Measurement of technical inefficiency and total factor productivity growth: A semiparametric stochastic input distance frontier approach and the case of Lithuanian dairy farms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 1174-1188.
    14. Binfield, Julian & Boulanger, Pierre & Davids, Tracy & Dudu, Hasan & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mainar-Causapé, Alfredo, 2022. "Trade liberalisation in Kenya: A modelling linkage for wheat and maize," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(01), March.
    15. Donnellan, T. & Hanrahan, K. & Breen, James P. & Gillespie, P., 2013. "Climate Change and Agricultural Policy Coherence: Agricultural Growth and GHG Emissions in Ireland," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158853, Agricultural Economics Society.
    16. Loginova, Daria, 2022. "Assessing the Short-term Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalisation on Food Import Prices: The Regression Discontinuity in Time Employed for Russian Food Markets in 2014," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(3), September.
    17. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2020. "Tariff Escalation and Import Bans in the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EU and West Africa," Conference papers 333239, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.
    19. Carriquiry, Miguel & Elobeid, Amani & Goodrich, Ryan, 2016. "Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235888, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Ivanov, Bozhidar & Sokolova, Emilia, 2014. "Modelling of cereal and oilseed crop production in Bulgaria in the context of policy changes," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 116(01), pages 1-7, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa155:245172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.