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Between a Cap and a Higher Price: The Dairy Quota Trilemma

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  • Chernoff, Alex W.

Abstract

The system of supply management in the Canadian dairy sector requires that farmers acquire quota to produce milk. In Canada's largest dairy producing province, Quebec, a ceiling on the price of quotas has been in effect since 2007. Previous research established that the use of quota price ceilings create a new source of inefficiency in the Canadian dairy sector. An alternative method for lowering quota prices is to lower the rent from quotas through lowering the farm price of milk. I determine the magnitude of the decrease in the farm price of milk that would be required to reduce the valuation of Quebec dairy quotas to the current price ceiling of $25,000 per unit. Accomplishing this task requires modeling the implicit valuation of quotas during the price ceiling era. Starting from a dynamic model of the demand for quotas, I develop an econometric model to estimate producers' discount factor. Using my econometric results and the modeled equilibrium price, I estimate the price of dairy quotas over the period 1993-2010. In 2010, I estimate that dairy quotas in Quebec would have traded at a price of $31,955 in the absence of the price ceiling. My results indicate that lowering the valuation of quotas to $25,000 per unit would have required an 11.83% reduction in the farm price of milk.
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  • Chernoff, Alex W., 2013. "Between a Cap and a Higher Price: The Dairy Quota Trilemma," Trade Policy Briefs 146977, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:catptp:146977
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.146977
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Alvarez & Carlos Arias & Luis Orea, 2006. "Explaining Differences in Milk Quota Values: The Role of Economic Efficiency," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 182-193.
    2. Alex Cairns & Karl Meilke, 2012. "Price Ceilings on Milk Production Quota Values: Future or Folly?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(1), pages 93-112, March.
    3. Alfons Weersink & Calum G. Turvey & Abdulahi Godah, 1990. "Decomposition Measures of Technical Efficiency for Ontario Dairy Farms," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 38(4), pages 1023-1023, December.
    4. Boots, Maroeska & Oude Lansink, Alfons & Peerlings, Jack, 1997. "Efficiency Loss Due to Distortions in Dutch Milk Quota Trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 24(1), pages 31-46.
    5. Richard Barichello & John Cranfield & Karl Meilke, 2009. "Options for the Reform of Supply Management in Canada with Trade Liberalization," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(2), pages 203-217, June.
    6. repec:bla:canjag:v:38:y:1990:i:4:p:1023-1023:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alfons Weersink & Calum G. Turvey & Abdulahi Godah, 1990. "Decomposition Measures of Technical Efficiency for Ontario Dairy Farms," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 38(3), pages 439-456, November.
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