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Agricultural production, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

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  • Taheripour, Farzad
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Gopalakrishnan, Badri N.
  • Sahin, Sebnem
  • Escurra, Jorge J.

Abstract

This paper uses an advanced Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with biophysical data on future changes in crop yields due to climate change to examine: 1) the consequences of climate change for India’s agricultural and food products; 2) the extent to which water scarcity can affect the irrigation adoption and demand for water; and 3) how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. It shows that when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grows due to changes in crop yields induced by climate change. When water scarcity is introduced, competition for water increases and that largely reduces demand for irrigation across all river basins in India. When available water for irrigation is not limited, climate change alone could moderately increase agricultural outputs at national level and that leads to some welfare gains. However, water scarcity, induced by expansion in water demand in non-agricultural uses and lack of water infrastructure, blocks the demand for irrigation and that generates significant negative impacts on the economy of India and its agricultural activates. The overall welfare losses due to water scarcity for this economy is expected to be about $3.2 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. With a 3% discount rate, the net present value of the annual reductions in welfare will be about $24.3 billion for 2008 to 2030.

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  • Taheripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Gopalakrishnan, Badri N. & Sahin, Sebnem & Escurra, Jorge J., 2015. "Agricultural production, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205591, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205591
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205591
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    1. Farzad Taheripour & Thomas W. Hertel & Wallace E. Tyner, 2011. "Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, May.
    2. Mark W. Rosegrant & Claudia Ringler & Tingju Zhu & Simla Tokgoz & Prapti Bhandary, 2013. "Water and food in the bioeconomy: challenges and opportunities for development," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 139-150, November.
    3. Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," GTAP Working Papers 2810, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Taheripour, Farzad & Thomas Hertel & Jing Liu, 2013. "Introducing water by river basin into the GTAP-BIO model: GTAP-BIO-W," GTAP Working Papers 4304, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Taheripour, Farzad & Dileep Birur & Thomas Hertel & Wally Tyner, 2007. "Introducing Liquid Biofuels into the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Research Memoranda 2534, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Willis, David B. & Rainwater, Ken & Tewari, Rachna & Stovall, Jeff & Hayhoe, Katharine & Hernandez, Annette & Mauget, Steven A. & Leiker, Gary & Johnson, Jeff, 2014. "Projecting the Economic Impact and Level of Groundwater Use in the Southern High Plains under Alternative Climate Change Forecasts Using a Coupled Economic and Hydrologic Model," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170705, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    1. Haqiqi, Iman & Taheripour, Farzad & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2016. "Climate Change, Food Production, and Welfare," Conference papers 332785, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Narayanan, Badri G. & Taheripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Sahin, Sebnem & Escurra, Jorge J., 2015. "Water Scarcity in South Asia: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205651, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use;
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