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Impacts of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields in China

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  • Chen, Shuai
  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Xu, Jintao

Abstract

Using a unique county-level panel on crop yields and daily weather dataset over the past decade, we estimate the impact of climate change on corn and soybean yields in China. Our results suggest the existence of nonlinear and asymmetric relationships between corn and soybean yields and climate variables. We find that extreme high temperatures are always harmful for crop growth. Moreover, the rapid expansion of corn and soybean acreages at both intensive- and extensive margins had detrimental effects on corn and soybean yields. Using estimated coefficients, we estimate changing climate conditions over the study period has led to an economic loss of $220 million in 2009 alone in China’s corn and soybean sectors. Corn yields in China are predicted to decrease by 2-5% under the slowest warming scenario and by 5-15% under the fastest warming scenario by the end of the century. The reductions in soybean yields are found to be more pronounced, about 5-10% and 8-22%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2013. "Impacts of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields in China," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149739, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:149739
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.149739
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    1. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2019. "How econometrics can help us understand the effects of climate change on crop yields: the case of soybeans," School of Government Working Papers wp_gob_2019_2, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. Felicia Chețan & Cornel Chețan & Ileana Bogdan & Adrian Ioan Pop & Paula Ioana Moraru & Teodor Rusu, 2021. "The Effects of Management (Tillage, Fertilization, Plant Density) on Soybean Yield and Quality in a Three-Year Experiment under Transylvanian Plain Climate Conditions," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Yang, Tao & Ouyang, Xueying & Wang, Bo & Tian, Di & Xu, Cheng & Lin, Zeyang & Ge, Xiaomin & Tang, Luozhong, 2023. "Understanding the effects of tree-crop intercropping systems on crop production in China by combining field experiments with a meta-analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2021. "Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride from Climate Change? Evidence from Argentine Time Series Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Michée A. Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta & Carlos E. Ludena, 2022. "Economic effects of climate change on agricultural production and productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(2), pages 321-332, March.
    6. Huaquan Zhang & Abbas Ali Chandio & Fan Yang & Yashuang Tang & Martinson Ankrah Twumasi & Ghulam Raza Sargani, 2022. "Modeling the Impact of Climatological Factors and Technological Revolution on Soybean Yield: Evidence from 13-Major Provinces of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Meng, Ting & Carew, Richard C. & Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Klepacka, Anna M., 2016. "Modeling Temperature and Precipitation Influences on Yield Distributions of Canola and Spring Wheat in Saskatchewan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235251, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2019. "How econometrics can help us understand the effects of climate change on crop yields: the case of soybeans," School of Government Working Papers 201902, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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