IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea11/103693.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Timing of Farmland Investment - An Experimental Study on Farmers' Decision Behavior -

Author

Listed:
  • Maart, Syster Christin
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

Optimal timing of farmland investment represents fundamental decisions for agricultural entrepreneurs. It is known that the land price value is significantly higher than the expected present value of expected future gains. In this paper we experimentally analyze the investment behavior of real farmers and contrast the observed investment decisions with theoretical benchmarks of the classical investment theory and the Real Options Approach. Furthermore, we investigate framing effects. Our results show that the framing of the investment situation has no significant influence on the decision behavior in the experiment. Moreover, the investment behavior of farmers approximates the predictions of the Real Options Approach if they are given an equitable chance to learn from personal experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2011. "Optimal Timing of Farmland Investment - An Experimental Study on Farmers' Decision Behavior -," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103693, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103693
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103693
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103693/files/AAEA_Maart.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.103693?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 1998. "A comparison of learning and replicator dynamics using experimental data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 263-280, April.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    3. Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Elisabet Rutström, E., 2009. "Risk attitudes, randomization to treatment, and self-selection into experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 498-507, June.
    4. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1996. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 753-777.
    5. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    6. Ryan Oprea & Daniel Friedman & Steven T. Anderson, 2009. "Learning to Wait: A Laboratory Investigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1103-1124.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Isik, Murat & Yang, Wanhong, 2004. "An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty and Irreversibility on Farmer Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Abdullah Yavas & C. Sirmans, 2005. "Real Options: Experimental Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 27-52, August.
    10. Bettman, James R & Sujan, Mita, 1987. "Effects of Framing on Evaluation of Comparable and Noncomparable Alternatives by Expert and Novice Consumers," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 14(2), pages 141-154, September.
    11. Alex Winter-Nelson & Koffi Amegbeto, 1998. "Option Values to Conservation and Agricultural Price Policy: Application to Terrace Construction in Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(2), pages 409-418.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    13. Xiaoqiang Hu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1998. "Investment And Capital Market Imperfections: A Switching Regression Approach Using U.S. Firm Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 466-479, August.
    14. Patel, Pankaj C. & Fiet, James O., 2010. "Enhancing the internal validity of entrepreneurship experiments by assessing treatment effects at multiple levels across multiple trials," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 127-140, October.
    15. Silke Hüttel & Oliver Mußhoff & Martin Odening, 2010. "Investment reluctance: irreversibility or imperfect capital markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 37(1), pages 51-76, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Maack, Moritz & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "The Impact of Price Floors -A Real Options Based Experimental Approach-," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124328, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanna J. Ihli & Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2014. "Does timing matter? A real options experiment to farmers' investment and disinvestment behaviours," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(3), pages 430-452, July.
    2. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the investment behavior of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124650, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 154775, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    4. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2013. "Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-318, June.
    5. Gesa Sophie Holst & Alexander März & Oliver Mußhoff, 2016. "Experimentelle Untersuchung der Optimalität von Investitionsentscheidungen [Do personal and experiment-specific characteristics influence the optimality of investment decisions?]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 167-192, July.
    6. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
    7. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    9. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Understanding the Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150331, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    11. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Experimental examination of land investment decisions with volatile returns A comparison between Kazakhstani and German farmers," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122454, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff & Moritz Maack, 2013. "The impact of price floors on farmland investments: a real options based experimental analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4872-4882, December.
    13. Zeng, Yaxiong & Klabjan, Diego & Arinez, Jorge, 2015. "Distributed solar renewable generation: Option contracts with renewable energy credit uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 295-305.
    14. Work, James & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty), 2018. "What ethanol prices would induce growers to switch from agriculture to poplar in Alberta? A multiple options approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-62.
    15. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    16. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Product market competition, investment and employment-abundant versus job-poor growth: A real options perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 218-238, March.
    17. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 1999. "Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    18. Gkousis, Spiros & Welkenhuysen, Kris & Harcouët-Menou, Virginie & Pogacnik, Justin & Laenen, Ben & Compernolle, Tine, 2024. "Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    20. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.