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Ex Ante Vs. Ex Post Bioterrorism Mitigation: Better Safe Than Sorry?

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  • Elbakidze, Levan
  • McCarl, Bruce A.

Abstract

This article examines a tradeoff between ex ante mitigation costs and ex post costs of response to a potential introduction of animal disease such as Foot and Mouth (FMD). In a simplified case study setting we examine the conditions for optimality of enhanced detection systems considering various characteristics of a potential FMD outbreak, costs of program implementation, severity of the disease outbreak, and relative effectiveness of surveillance and response strategies. We show that the decision to invest in ex ante detection activities depends on such factors as likelihood of disease introduction, disease spread rate, relative costs, ancillary benefits and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. While for slow spreading disease the investment in surveillance and detection was found to be optimal only for high probabilities of introduction, the investment was optimal even for low probabilities of outbreak occurrence for fast spreading disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Ex Ante Vs. Ex Post Bioterrorism Mitigation: Better Safe Than Sorry?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19191, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19191
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19191
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    1. Spencer Henson & Mario Mazzocchi, 2002. "Impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy on Agribusiness in the United Kingdom: Results of an Event Study of Equity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 370-386.
    2. M.-J. J. Mangen & A. M. Burrell, 2003. "Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(2), pages 125-154, June.
    3. McCauley, E. Hunt & Aulaqi, Nasser A. & New, John C. Jr & Sundquist, W. Burt & Miller, William M., 1979. "A Study of the Potential Economic Impact of Food-and-Mouth Disease in the United States," Technical Bulletins 157744, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. John A. Fox & David A. Hennessy, 1999. "Cost-Effective Hazard Control in Food Handling," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 359-372.
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    1. Olaniyi, Oladokun Nafiu & Szulczyk, Kenneth R., 2020. "Estimating the economic damage and treatment cost of basal stem rot striking the Malaysian oil palms," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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